Apple TV+ is providing MLB fans with a National League East matchup between the division’s two most disappointing teams, the Mets and Phillies. Still, these are two stout lineups with good power taking on a couple of solid arms on the mound, so the action should be exciting for this East Coast national television game. For tonight, the best Mets-Phillies bets are coming from the offensive side — though one pitcher is also getting solid value with his strikeout lines. Let’s get into the Mets-Phillies matchup and find which MLB player prop is the top play for the primetime game.
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Best MLB Mets-Phillies Bet & Prediction
MLB Free Picks: Mets-Phillies Odds
Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook
New York Mets: -105 | Philadelphia Phillies: -115
Over 9.5: -115 | Under 9.5: -105
The Phillies are in an interesting spot tonight against Kodai Senga. He is a 30-year-old rookie who came in with a lot of buzz, and the results have been exciting at times and frustrating at others. For one, he is certainly gettable, as his solid 3.53 ERA masks a more accurate 4.24 FIP and 43.8% hard-hit rate. But at the same time, Senga is one of the better strikeout pitchers in baseball, fanning 11 per nine innings. And the Phillies are one of the most strikeout-prone teams, so if they do not get to Senga with power, a lot of them could be going down on strikes.
This especially affects Turner since the three guys leading up to his spot in the order — Brandon Marsh, Edmundo Sosa and Kyle Schwarber — all strike out more than 25% of the time. Only Marsh has a decent on-base percentage, and with Schwarber (who basically only hits home runs) hitting directly in front of Turner, the RBI chances are not going to be particularly abundant in the No. 2 slot in the order.
The has borne out all season, with Turner totaling just 22 RBIs and recording at least one in 18 of 73 games (24.6%). This game has a higher total at 9.5, so Vegas is expecting runs — but it seems unlikely they will come off the bat of Turner.
Check out OddsShopper’s model projections on Turner below:
OddsShopper’s Premium Tool has the true odds for under 0.5 Turner RBIs at -234, so this over is smoking the market at -210. He has a 70% chance of failing to record an RBI, and that is leading to a solid 3% EV on OddsShopper and a recommended bet size of $23.74. This gives Turner’s under the top value spot for Mets-Phillies for Friday’s Apple TV+ game — get two months free of OddsShopper Discord Insider Access when you make your first bet with BetMGM!!
Best Mets-Phillies MLB Bet: Trea Turner Under 0.5 RBIs (-105, BetMGM)
