The New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies will do battle early on FS1 this afternoon. Superstar RHP Max Scherzer (6-2) will take the mound for the Mets, and they’re road favorites with him starting. Let’s dive into the Mets-Phillies odds as we make our predictions and pick the best MLB bet!
Readers looking for all the best MLB bets, picks and predictions throughout the season should check out OddsShopper’s articles and market-based models, including our Parlay Builder!
Best MLB Mets-Phillies Betting Pick & Prediction: Sharps Backing the Over
Mets-Phillies Odds
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Mets: -130 | Phillies: +105
Over 9.5: +100 | Under 9.5: -120
It’s worth getting into how much of an advantage the Mets have on the mound. RHP Max Scherzer (6-2), despite his age, is still a star pitcher. He owns a 4.04 ERA and a 3.44 xERA so far this year. The Phillies will start LHP Cristopher Sanchez (0-0), who, in two starts and 8.1 innings pitched, owns a 3.24 ERA and a 2.66 xERA. Sanchez has looked solid enough to keep the Phillies close, but he may need to go longer than four innings to help them get the job done. Both his ERA and xERA are unsustainably low relative to his career numbers as well.
The Mets have an edge on offense, but it’s kind of a hidden one. New York ranks eighth in expected weighted on-base average, or xwOBA, at .332. That’s well above 22nd-ranked Philadelphia (.316). The Mets have gotten quite unlucky to start the year and own a weighted on-base average, or wOBA, of only .315, which actually trails the Phillies’ performance in the metric (.319). While playing in pitcher-friendly Citi Field may have suppressed New York’s offense to this point, they’ll get a chance to go wild in hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park today.
Two splits also give New York a slight leg up. The Phillies have struggled at home this year, as their .735 OPS dips to .719 in Philadelphia. Likewise, their OPS dips to .715 against LHPs like Sanchez. The Mets actually beat their .716 OPS in situations like today’s — that number ticks up to .718 against RHPs like Scherzer and to .723 when they play on the road. The Mets may be 17-26 on the road this year, but they are 22-20-1 to the over.
With solid pitching on the mound for both teams, the over is a bit of a contrarian play, but sharp money suggests it’s the right one. Per VSiN, which indexes bets placed at DraftKings Sportsbook, 60% of the money is on the over but on only 34% of the tickets. Likewise, Pregame reports that 61% of the money is on the over on only 56% of the tickets. Let’s lock the over 9.5 in at +100 via DraftKings. New to DraftKings? Get $150 in bonus bets after you place a $5 wager by registering here!
Best Dodgers-Angels MLB Pick: Over 9.5 +100 at DraftKings
