Today’s best MLB bets have to be better than last week’s home run picks in this space for FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday. Because last week we went 0-5.
Keep reading, please.
The week before was a profit and just think of all the fun we’re having along the way.
Haven’t heard of Dinger Tuesday? Here’s how it works: After opting into the promotion, users who wager at least $25 on a straight bet for a player to hit a home run will earn a $5 bonus bet for each home run hit in that batter’s game. You can win up to $25 in bonus bets for each entry.
Ideally, one would pick a hitter in each game on the slate to cash in on the promotion. However, if you’re limited by either funds or the sportsbook itself, targeting high totals is the optimal play.
There is a caveat here. Because the promotion is limited to FanDuel, you may have to pass up the best number to take advantage. In general, this should be looked at as a fun wager that also happens to come with some slight positive EV — but this isn’t the same process as the rest of OddsShopper Premium’s other offerings.
New to FanDuel? Get $150 in bonus bets if you are a first-time depositor and place a $5 wager.
How you attack Dinger Tuesday is up to you. My preference, which may differ from others, is to generally take some chances. I’m finding high totals where home runs will be expected in order to cash in on the bonus bets while hoping to connect on a few longer odds. This probably isn’t the space to find many +250 picks.
Let’s get to the home run bets.
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Best MLB Bets Today: Home Runs
Carlos Santana +630 | Dodgers vs. Pirates
If we bet Santana last week in the +400s, why not go back at a much better price? We’re coming after Noah Syndergaard in hopes his mediocrity continues. Santana shows more power as a left-handed hitter against righties and we’ve got a slight wind out to center. Sign me up.
Adley Rutschman + 500 | Red Sox vs. Orioles
Is Corey Kluber cooked? Might be. He’s already allowed six homers this year, is getting barreled twice as often as his career average and his expected slugging percentage is a career worst by a mile. The cutter isn’t cutting, and Rutschman is a strong bet to feast on Kluber’s batting practice repertoire. Cedric Mullins makes for an intriguing longshot.
Tyler Stephenson +700 | Rangers vs. Reds
The numbers are pretty short at the top, so we’ll bank on Tyler Stephenson going yard for the first time this year. His exit velocity is up, he’s hitting fewer ground balls and is in a hitter’s environment in Cincinnati against Martin Perez. Perez’s xSLG is up and his cutter is getting hammered in the early going. Stephenson isn’t a power hitter by any stretch, but he’s got more than he’s shown thus far — which is zero.
Eloy Jimenez +440 | White Sox vs. Blue Jays
Take your pick in a matchup between Mike Clevinger and Jose Berrios. I’ll go with Jimenez, who has seen the ball well against Berrios in his (limited) sample size. Berrios has only given up one homer on the year, but is he really fixed after giving up 33 a year ago? He can be fixed the rest of the year. Tonight, he regresses to the mean.
Corbin Carroll +600 | Royals vs. Diamondbacks
With a total of 10, expect plenty of runs and home run opportunities. Brady Singer’s slider is getting destroyed in the early going, and Carroll is destroying sliders. The post-World Baseball Classic blues are hitting Singer and Carroll is a great candidate to take advantage.
For any bets added later, follow me on Twitter where I often tweet my home run picks throughout the week (thank you, Joey Gallo).
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