What’s going on, everybody? Eric Lindquist here, and friends, we made it. It’s Opening Day — one of the best days of the entire year, no question. We have baseball back in our lives, eight NBA games on the slate, NCAA Tournament action and yes, for the first time this year, it’s a full MLB edition of Lindy’s Leans, Likes and Locks. If you’re hyped for the season, check out the best MLB bets today from odds to game lines to player props — including the best home run bet!
Best MLB Bets Today: Player Props, Lines & Odds
Real quick before we dive into the MLB plays: If you’re new here or just back for baseball, check out Portfolio EV. It’s the best market-based betting app out there. Promo code MLBPortfolioEV gets you a 14-day free trial (normally it’s just seven). Upload your bets, compare them across books and let the math do the work. Whether you’re in New Jersey, Illinois, Texas or somewhere in between, Portfolio EV helps you find the best odds and the best expected value across the market.
Alright, enough chit chat. It’s time to talk some MLB best bets today. Opening Day Leans, Likes and Locks — let’s get to work.
Lean: Yankees vs. Brewers – Carlos Rodon Under 5.5 Strikeouts
Freddy Peralta is back for the Brewers, and we have Carlos Rodon on the bump for the Yankees. Here’s the issue: I don’t expect the Yankees to stretch Rodon too far here. The weather’s cold (around 49 degrees at first pitch), and with Gerrit Cole already shelved, I imagine they’ll be cautious with Rodon’s workload. Add in some plus money on this under, and I’m leaning toward fading the strikeouts.
Lean: Twins Moneyline vs. Cardinals
Pablo Lopez takes the hill for my Minnesota Twins against old friend Sonny Gray and the Cardinals. Lopez is a stud, and while I don’t trust the Twins bullpen much, I do trust Lopez to get the job done early. This is not quite a bet for me yet — ballpark conditions in St. Louis aren’t great — but I’m leaning toward Minnesota here.
Like: Orioles Moneyline vs. Blue Jays
Let’s get this card started! I love this Baltimore lineup going up against Jose Berrios. He’s been giving up barrels and hard contact, and the Orioles have lefty power in abundance — Gunnar Henderson, Ryan O’Hearn, Colton Cowser — plus Ryan Mountcastle and Jordan Westburg mashing from the right. Toronto’s staff still has question marks, and Baltimore’s lineup looks primed to pounce. I’m clicking Baltimore moneyline.
Like: James Wood Over 0.5 Total Bases (Nationals)
James Wood is a name to know this season. He’s batting high in the order, and while he’s still working out the kinks (28.9% strikeout rate), when he makes contact, it’s loud — 52% hard hit rate, 10.6% barrel rate. He gets Zack Wheeler and the Phillies here, but with the wind blowing out to right field and some bullpen concerns behind Wheeler, I’m taking a stab on Wood to just get a hit.
Like: Sandy Alcantara Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (vs. Pirates)
Alcantara is back after injury, but don’t expect him to go too deep in this one. Pittsburgh’s lineup is improved — Tommy Pham, Oneil Cruz, Bryan Reynolds — but it’s still not one that screams consistency. In a pitcher-friendly park and with Alcantara likely on a pitch count, I’ll happily take plus money on under 4.5 hits.
Like: Matt McLain to Hit a Home Run (Reds) +1000
Finally, we have our first official home run play of the year! Logan Webb is a ground-ball machine, but Matt McLain has the launch angle sweet spot percentage to counteract that. In Great American Ballpark — a home run haven — this number is just too long to pass up.
Like: Yusei Kikuchi Under 6.5 Strikeouts (vs. White Sox)
The White Sox are bad — like, really bad. But that doesn’t mean we just blindly back overs on guys facing them. Yusei Kikuchi is at 6.5 strikeouts, but with at least two lefties in the projected lineup and a very inconsistent track record, I’m firing on the under.
Like: Michael King Under 3.5 Hits Allowed (vs. Braves)
Speaking of unders, Michael King is nasty. We’re talking elite metrics: 30% hard-hit rate, sub-.250 xwOBA. Atlanta’s loaded, but early in the year with a pitch count in the 80s, this is a strong spot to fade hits.
Like: Tigers-Dodgers Under 6.5
2023’s National League Cy Young winner starts his season against a Detroit lineup that’s still figuring itself out. Blake Snell’s strikeout prop is a touch high considering early-season ramp-up concerns and the fact that Detroit’s not totally incompetent.
Like: Ketel Marte Over 1.5 Total Bases (vs. Cubs)
Anytime Ketel Marte faces a lefty, it’s go time. The switch-hitter mashes from the right side and he gets Justin Steele, who’s already been touched up once this year. I grabbed this at -110 at BetMGM and feel good about it.
Like: A’s First 5 Innings Moneyline vs. Mariners
Low-variance baseball play here, first five innings only. Seattle’s Logan Gilbert is solid but gives up hard contact. Oakland trots out Luis Severino, who has the stuff to limit damage early. Plus money on a team I’m mildly excited about? Sure, why not?
