What’s going on, everybody? Eric Lindquist with the Friday edition of MLB and NBA Lindy’s Leans, Likes and Locks. Now, let me just say: The MLB season is long. The end of March and April haven’t been great to me the past two years, so I always start with lighter unit sizing. Don’t go wild right out of the gate. Be smart, scale in and we’ll ramp things up once we have more data and rhythm with our best MLB bets.
Best MLB Bets Today: Player Props, Lines & Odds
We’re off to a pretty neutral start — decent overall, but no home run calls landed on Thursday. That’s all right. We’ll bounce back.
Let’s dig into Friday’s MLB betting slate. I have a few leans, a couple of firm likes, and we’re spinning the wheel again on a first-five bet that’s already in my portfolio.
Lean – Rays vs. Rockies
Ryan Pepiot gets the nod for Tampa Bay, with Shane McClanahan unavailable. On the other side, Kyle Freeland is coming off a rough 2024 campaign: .279 expected batting average, .345 xwOBA and 10.6% barrel rate. This is not Tropicana Field — we’re in a better hitting environment — and Junior Caminero is a name to watch. His Fall Ball performance in the Dominican was ridiculous. I’m keeping an eye on Caminero’s walk prop (+240) but haven’t bet it yet as it’s only available at one book.
Lean – Rangers vs. Red Sox
Jack Leiter is finally here. Despite being jerked around a bit last year, he has elite strikeout upside. The question is, what else shows up? He had big expected slugging and barrel numbers last year, and the launch angle wasn’t ideal. The roof was open in Arlington on Thursday, and we saw balls fly. Tanner Houck goes for Boston, and while I’m usually not into backing him, it’ll be Corey Seager’s first look at a righty this season. I’m passing for now but keeping tabs.
Lean – Braves vs. Padres
San Diego handled Chris Sale’s strikeout stuff well, and I expect the same against Reynaldo Lopez. But Dylan Cease is on the mound for the Padres, and he’s nasty — .210 xBA, 29.4% strikeout rate. The issues are some walks and hard contact. I’m passing on betting this one but watching closely.
Lean – Diamondbacks vs. Cubs
I’m not sold on Jameson Taillon. He avoids walks and barrels, but the Cubs’ pitching stats were inflated by Wrigley conditions flipping last year. Corbin Carroll moves up against righties like Taillon, and I’m looking to target Chicago starters early in the season.
Lean – Tigers vs. Dodgers
Shohei Ohtani went deep Thursday, and if we get a good number (better than +230), I’ll consider backing him again against Jack Flaherty. Yoshinobu Yamamoto gets the ball for the Dodgers. There is a ton of ground ball potential, so I’m not excited about backing Detroit hitters here.
Like – Orioles Moneyline vs. Blue Jays
Baltimore destroyed Toronto on Thursday, and its bullpen is still fresh. It didn’t need to use Felix Bautista or any of its top arms, and now the Orioles face Kevin Gausman coming off his worst big league season: 42.4% hard hit, .333 xwOBA, 9.7% barrel rate. I don’t love backing Charlie Morton, but this matchup is a near coin flip, and Baltimore at +110 feels like value.
Like – Pirates-Marlins Under 7.5 Runs
Thursday’s Miami lineup was laughable. Xavier Edwards, Kyle Stowers, Matt Mervis hitting cleanup — it’s a minor league roster. Pittsburgh isn’t exactly loaded either. Paul Skenes did fine Thursday, and these are two bad offenses in a pitcher-friendly park. This under feels strong.
Like – Astros Moneyline vs. Mets (-130)
Hunter Brown gets the ball for Houston, and I’m a believer — low hard-hit and barrel rates, 27% strikeout rate. Tylor Megill, meanwhile, is erratic and lets up a ton of barrels. Houston’s bats don’t strike out, and this is a mismatch. I love the Astros in this spot.
Like – Athletics First 5 Innings Moneyline vs. Mariners
We go back to the well with Jeffrey Springs, who gets his first start in an Athletics uniform. He has a sub-.300 xwOBA and 26% strikeout rate when healthy. His changeup is nasty. Luis Castillo is fine but benefits massively from T-Mobile Park’s run suppression. We hit this first-five bet on Thursday. I’m running it back Friday.
