The Diamondbacks and the Angels continue their series in Los Angeles, and tonight’s game projects as a high scoring one. RHP Ryne Nelson (4-4) is on the mound for Arizona, and his form this year suggests that the Angels could get to him early and go over their first-half runs total of 2.5, making them the best MLB first-five bet today.
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Best MLB First Five Bet Today: Los Angeles Angels | July 1
Los-Angeles Angels F5 Total: O/U 2.5
RHP Ryne Nelson’s (4-4) stats reveal he is a vulnerable pitcher. Across 16 starts and 83.1 innings pitched, he owns a low 16.1% SO rate, an elevated 1.45 WHIP, a high .345 wOBA , an ugly 5.06 xERA and an even worse 5.11 SIERA. Opposing batters also hit quite well against him, as suggested by his inflated 10.5% barrel rate, .469 SLG mark and .486 xSLG. Nelson has fared significantly worse against lefties (5.71 xFIP compared to 4.26 against righties), allowing them more power (.525 SLG compared to .420, 1.56 HR/9 compared to 0.63) and walking them at a much higher rate (12.4% compared to 2.7%). Given how good the Angels have been lately, tonight’s matchup could mean a short outing for Nelson.
The Angels have excelled against righties in the last month of baseball. During this span (810 PA), Los Angeles ranks second in wRC+ (140), wOBA (.374) and ISO (.245) while boasting the third-highest collective walk rate (10%). Tonight’s projected lineup has seven batters that create runs better than average against righties, above all Mickey Moniak (L, 195 wRC+), Shohei Ohtani (L, 193 wRC+), Mike Trout (R, 148 wRC+) and Brandon Drury (R, 133 wRC+). Importantly, all four of the lefties in the Angels’ projected lineup have a higher-than-average wRC+ against righties, while three of them (Ohtani, Matt Thaiss and Mike Moustakas) walk at a very high rate against them. In all, the Angels should roll out a lineup that spells serious trouble for Nelson.
The Angels are in a great spot to plate runs early against a struggling pitcher. As such, backing them to get to Nelson and score three or more runs in the game’s first five innings for -130 at DraftKings should prove profitable. New to DraftKings? Get $150 in bonus bets by signing up here and placing a $5 bet!
Best MLB First Five Bet Today: Los Angeles Angels F5 Over 2.5 -130 at DraftKings
