We started the season on a high note earlier this week, and we’ll look to continue that momentum today by backing the Phillies, who are in D.C. to face the Nationals and left-handed pitcher Patrick Corbin. With that being said, let’s dive into today’s best MLB first five innings bet for Phillies-Nationals.
Best MLB First Five Innings Bet (April 5)
Corbin is past his prime, and last year’s season was one of the worst, if not the worst, in his career. Across 180 innings (32 starts, 10-15), Corbin had a low 15.7% strikeout rate (career low and bottom 6% of the league), an alarming .303 xBA (bottom 2%), a disturbing .373 xwOBA (bottom 4%), a very high 6.16 xERA and an elevated 4.76 xFIP (career worst). As a fun fact, his 5.01 SIERA was also a career worst.
Corbin allowed opposing batters to generate excellent contact, mostly thanks to .518 xSLG (bottom 3%), 43.8% hard-hit rate, 9.3% barrel rate and 1.65 home runs per nine. As was the case throughout his career, right-handed batters were his kryptonite — .301 average (compared to .254), .363 wOBA (.309), .501 slugging (.389), 1.79 home runs per nine (1.06) and 4.85 xFIP (4.36). Evidently, Corbin is a pitcher against whom we can target.
The Phillies added Whit Merrifield to the mix, but other than that their lineup is similar to the one they had last year. This is good news since the team was pretty good against left-handed pitchers, having the fifth-highest collective ISO (.196), eighth-highest wOBA (.334) and 11th-highest wRC+ (108).
Philadelphia’s expected lineup spells trouble for Corbin, as it should include six or seven batters that created runs better than average against left-handed pitchers last year, most of them righties. Above all, we can look for Nick Castellanos (.324 average, .237 ISO, 148 wRC+), Alec Bohm (.303, .290, 142), Bryce Harper (.289, .221, 137) and J.T. Realmuto (.256, .263, 118+) to do some damage against Corbin.
Game-time weather isn’t ideal but isn’t overly concerning either, with mild to cold temperatures (mid-40s) and strong to moderate wind blowing sideways. The Phillies going over 2.5 runs in the game’s first five innings is currently listed at +100 on DraftKings, which is slightly better than Pinnacle’s odds (-105). Given Corbin’s rates last year and Phillies success against left-handed pitchers, these odds look favorable.
Best MLB First Five Innings Bet: Phillies Over 2.5 Runs (+100 at DraftKings, 0.5 Units)
