Minnesota has been one of the better teams in baseball against left-handed pitchers lately, and today they’ll face the struggling Patrick Corbin. In other words, we’re backing the Twins to put up runs early in tonight’s game. With that being said, let’s dive into today’s best MLB first five innings bet for Twins-Nationals.
Best MLB First Five Innings Bet (May 21)
Corbin’s rates weren’t good last year (or the year before that), and they aren’t good this year as well through 48.1 innings (9 starts, 1-4). While his xFIP (4.40) and SIERA (4.84) are elevated but still serviceable, the majority of his underlying rates are simply awful – 5.80 xERA (bottom 8% of the league), .322 xBA (bottom 1%), .375 xwOBA (slightly better than his actual wOBA but still bottom 8%) and .480 xSLG. If that’s not bad enough, Corbin has a 13.2% strikeout rate (5.40 per nine innings), which is a career low and bottom 5% in the league.
Corbin does generate a good among of ground balls (49.4%, 78th percentile), and despite a high 48.8% hard-hit rate, he has a rather low 0.75 HR per nine mark (lowest since 2018) and 6.4% barrel rate. That said, his home runs per nine are projected to be much higher moving forward (around 1.30 to 1.40), so his success limiting home runs might not live long. Splits-wise, Corbin is vulnerable to batters from both sides of the plate, though more so to lefties so far. While Minnesota is expected to roll out seven righties, its lineup should be able to pose issues for Corbin.
Minnesota is crushing lefties this season, ranking fourth in wRC+ (125), slugging (.453), and wOBA (.344) in the split over the last month of baseball (272 PA). The Twins expected lineup includes five batters that create runs better than average against lefties this season, headlined by Willi Castro (217 wRC+, .436 average, 205 ISO), Ryan Jeffers (141 wRC+, .238 ISO), Jose Miranda (130 wRC+, .303 average) and Carlos Santana (125 wRC+, .244 ISO). While the sample size isn’t ideal and some of these batters are hitting unsustainably well (looking at you, Castro and Miranda), this is still a Twins lineup that has what it takes to get to Corbin.
The weather is also in favor of hitting, with game-time temperatures in the mid- to high 70s and a light wind that’s expected to blow out to left field. Given the favorable hitting conditions and Corbin’s uninspiring rates, the Twins are in a great spot to continue their prolific output against lefties. With the odds at -105, which is slightly better than Pinnacle’s (-113), we’ll back them to score early and go over their first-five total runs line (2.5).
Best MLB First Five Innings Bet: Twins Over 2.5 Runs (-105 at DraftKings)
