The San Francisco Giants and Oakland Athletics kick off a two-game Subway Series on Tuesday night. The A’s are the worst team in baseball, but they’ll get a chance to defend their home turf and Bay Area bragging rights against a slumping Giants squad. San Francisco has lost six straight games, taking them from playoff favorites to the thick of the offseason battle. They’re still heavily favored to beat the A’s, so let’s dive into the Giants-Athletics odds to make the best MLB bet and prediction.
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Best MLB Giants-Athletics Betting Pick & Prediction: Pinch-Hit Risk is High
Giants-Athletics Odds
Odds via BetRivers
Giants: -265 | Athletics: +220
Giants -1.5: -121 | Athletics +1.5: +100
Over 8: -115 | Under 8: -105
The San Francisco Giants are on a skid. After winning the first two games of a Midwest and East Coast swing, they have dropped six straight games, including a make-up game last night against the Detroit Tigers. Home cooking should be sweet for this team, although they won’t exactly get back into their own confines of Candlestick Park. The Giants start a brief two-game set against the Athletics on Tuesday. Luckily, the A’s are every MLB team’s favorite “get right spot.”
One of the keys to San Francisco’s success this year, and their general solid play relative to their budget, has been managing their starting lineup. The Giants are experts of the platoon, playing their righties against lefties and left-handed batters against righty pitching. It allows them to always get the most out of their roster. However, it’s terrible for MLB hitting props. You can be certain that some players in the Giants batting order are going to get pinch-hit for.
Tonight, Austin Slater is the top pinch-hit risk, but others like Luis Matos and Casey Schmitt could also find themselves on the bench after one or two plate appearances. The A’s will start the game with the left-handed Ken Waldichuk. He is likely to give up some offense to guys like Slater, Matos and Schmitt, but if BABIP or walk variance goes the right way, they are likely to only get 2-3 times at the plate.
The pinch-hit risk is tough to price for MLB betting originators and for sportsbooks. BetRivers has Austin Slater Under 0.5 hits at +190. The true odds according to OddsShopper’s market-based model are +177, leaving a 4% positive expected value on the bet. This Giants-Athletics bet should win 36% of the time and is worth staking .7% of your bankroll using the Kelly Criterion for proper staking. You’ll find similar value on the Under .5 hits for Casey Schmitt (+155) and Luis Matos (+190). Those both have a 4% edge and are likewise worth staking between .7-.8% of your roll. Slater is likely to lead off, but keep an eye on the batting order as well, as these prices will be impacted by how high Schmitt and Matos are hitting.
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Best Giants-Athletics MLB Pick: Austin Slate Under 0.5 Hits (+190) at BetRivers; Also Consider Luis Matos Under 0.5 Hits (+190) and Casey Schmitt Under 0.5 Hits (+155)
