The San Francisco Giants are one of the most surprising teams in baseball. There was little expected from this team heading into the year, but they have a 51-41 record and are deep into the NL playoff race. They will look to continue their winning ways against the Pittsburgh Pirates on Sunday. A win for the Giants would mean a series sweep over the Pirates before they head out to Cincinnati to take on the Reds. First, let’s look at Sunday’s Giants-Pirates finale to make the best prediction and MLB best bet!
Looking for winning MLB bets posted daily? OddsShopper has you covered! Check out our MLB articles and our MLB bet shopping pages that use our industry-leading betting model to find plays with positive expected value (+EV) each day. We even have a Parlay Builder! If you’re hungry for more than just the picks we post for free, sign up for OddsShopper Premium today — new users can get their first month for 70% off.
Best MLB Giants-Pirates Betting Pick & Prediction: Value Bets in Finale
Giants-Pirates Odds
Odds via BetRivers Sportsbook
Giants: -141 | Pirates: +120
Giants -1.5: +112 | Pirates +1.5: -136
Over 9: -117 | Under 9: -104
The Giants and Pirates will kick off tomorrow’s MLB action with an early game on NBC’s Peacock Network. There will not be anything flashy about this one, but the Giants-Pirates game does feature two steady hands on the mound. The Giants starter is Alex Wood, who has been a consistent arm in their rotation for several years since coming over from the Los Angeles Dodgers. He has a 4.68 ERA in 2023 across 13 appearance, nine of which were starts. He has never been anything to write home about, but he can eat innings and provide solid work at the big league level. That is certainly the case against a weaker team like the Pirates.
Osvaldo Bido will be on the hill for Pittsburgh. He is receiving his first taste of major league action in 2023, and while Bido is hardly a top pitching talent, he has also been a steady hand for the Pirates. Bido has a 4.44 ERA in a small sample of six outings and five starts. He has put up nearly a strikeout per inning despite dancing around 10 walks. His job will be to provide a strong three to five innings for Pittsburgh before handing it over to their bullpen. Bido has not gone more than four innings since late June despite decent results in two of his last three outings (one being a relief appearance).
One key for Wood and Bido is the weakness of both offenses in this game. The Giants rank 20th in baseball in overall team offensive WAR according to Fangraphs, while the Pirates sit at 27th. But the most important factor is simply the price on the overs for Giants-Pirates bets. This game does not have eye-popping value in any of the major MLB betting markets, but you can squeeze a bit of positive expected value on a run total derivative.
BetRivers has the Giants-Pirates run total bet at over/under 9.0 priced efficiently. However, MLB bettors can buy over 8.5 runs at -143, which leaves about a 1% edge. The pitchers may be solid and the offenses weak, but the number is just a bit too low relative to the rest of the market, giving MLB bettors something to sweat in this early televised MLB matchup. The bet should win about 59% of the time and has breakeven odds of -147. Do not break the bank of this Giants-Pirates bet, but if you are betting using the Kelly Criterion staking method, it is worth wagering about .5% of your bank roll.
Best Giants-Pirates MLB Pick: Over 8.5 Runs (-143) at BetRivers
