Sports are better when you have action on them. OddsShopper’s market-based model was right to target several bats from the Los Angeles Dodgers last night, but unfortunately for us, Will Smith, Mookie Betts and Miguel Vargas did the damage. No both, we’re back at it today. Let’s dive into the top MLB home run bets and picks from OddsShopper’s model for today, which include Trea Turner. Sign up to access the model’s picks for everything from home run picks to tennis props!
Few sweats are more fun than home run bets. Waiting for your selected player to get his next at-bat — and then hoping they get the right pitch to send yard — can make any afternoon much more enjoyable. Especially when you hit. Readers looking for all the best MLB bets, picks and predictions throughout the season should check out OddsShopper’s articles and market-based models, including our Parlay Builder!
Best MLB Home Run Bets & Picks Today: Back These Longshots
Red Sox at Cleveland Guardians | 7:10 p.m. ET on ESPN+
You can actually sweat this one out in real time if you have an ESPN+ subscription. I’ve got some thoughts of my own on tonight’s battle between the Red Sox and Guardians, but this play aligns with my analysis: it’s a good spot to target Boston’s bats, especially since the Guardians have chewed up their bullpen.
OddsShopper’s market-based model likes the over for a few of Boston’s bats, but it finds plenty of value on the home run market for Triston Casas. Casas has six home runs to his name this year in 198 plate appearances, which isn’t great, but the numbers suggest Casas has gotten unlucky. His weighted on-base average slots in at .306, far below his expected weighted on-base average of .341.
Casas, a left-handed batter, benefits more than the rest of Boston’s batting order from the stadium. Cleveland’s Progressive field ranks 17th in park factors for left-handed batters but 26th for right-handed ones. Although Cleveland’s starter, RHP Aaron Civale (1-1), has fared well against lefties, we’re getting a great deal on Casas.
We can buy Casas to hit a home run at odds of +540 (15.6%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. Our model says that a fair market price, which it generates by indexing the odds available across the market, especially sharp sportsbooks, is actually +470 (17.5%). We’re getting enough edge at FanDuel to give this play plenty of value. If you haven’t signed up for FanDuel, you can get a no-sweat first bet worth up to $2,500!
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Triston Casas +540 at FanDuel
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Detroit Tigers | 6:05 p.m. ET
Let’s wrap this column up with a home run pick from the Philadelphia Phillies. Trea Turner isn’t the best power hitter, but the odds have gotten a bit long for him to hit a long ball. Note that 15 other home run picks are popping with positive expected value in OddsShopper’s market-based model; you can get a seven-day free trial until the end of the week.
Turner will take on the Detroit Tigers and LHP Tyler Holton (0-0). Holton has pitched 31 innings this year but is yet to start a game. He has allowed three total home runs, all of which were recorded by right-handed batters like Turner. Four of Turner’s seven home runs have come in his 87 plate appearances against left-handed pitchers.
The park factors and home-away splits point to value as well. Philadelphia’s Citizens Bank Park ranks eighth in park factors for righties. Five of Turner’s home runs have come at home — two of which came against the Tigers on Monday, and his home slugging percentage (.415) outpaces what he has put together on the road (.378). A fair market price for this home run pick is +484 (17.1%), but we can buy the +560 (15.2%) at FanDuel.
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Trea Turner +560 at FanDuel
