Who doesn’t love a home run? OddsShopper’s market-based model does, especially when it identifies an off-market or mispriced number. Let’s dive into the top MLB home run bets and picks from OddsShopper’s model for today, which include Salvador Perez. Sign up to access the model’s picks for everything from home run picks to tennis props!
Few sweats are more fun than home run bets. Waiting for your selected player to get his next at-bat — and then hoping they get the right pitch to send yard — can make any afternoon much more enjoyable. Especially when you hit. Readers looking for all the best MLB bets, picks and predictions throughout the season should check out OddsShopper’s articles and market-based models, including our Parlay Builder!
Best MLB Home Run Bets & Picks Today: Kansas City Slugger in a Good Spot
Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles | 7:05 p.m. ET on Apple TV+
If you want to tune into this game live, you can — as long as you’ve got Apple TV+. Getting to sweat your home run bets with a broadcast is always a better experience. For today’s Royals and Orioles game, OddsShopper’s model recommends getting some exposure to Salvador Perez.
The Baltimore Orioles will start RHP Tyler Wells (4-2), whose 3.29 ERA is slightly inflated relative to his 3.46 xERA. Wells has allowed only eight home runs to right-handed batters like Perez this season, but Perez has hit an impressive 11 home runs against right-handed pitchers.
The Kansas City Royals are on the road for this one, but that actually may help Perez here. Camden Yards ranks fourth in park factors and fifth for right-handed batters. Perez has already hit three home runs against the Orioles this season as well.
Let’s head to FanDuel for this one. OddsShopper’s model thinks a fair price for this home run pick is +337 (22.9%), but we can buy it at +390 (20.4%) at FanDuel. If you haven’t signed up for FanDuel, you can get a no-sweat first bet worth up to $2,500!
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Salvador Perez +540 at FanDuel
Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves | 7:20 p.m. ET
Let’s wrap this column up with a true longshot home run pick. Joey Meneses has just two home runs to his name in 256 plate appearances this year, but the odds for him to go yard have gotten absurdly long. Note that 15 other home run picks are popping with positive expected value in OddsShopper’s market-based model; you can get a seven-day free trial until the end of the week.
Meneses will take on RHP A.J. Smith-Shawver. Smith-Shawver is making his first professional start. It’s not his first professional appearance, as he threw 2.1 innings against the Arizona Diamondbacks on Sunday, but the 20-year-old still doesn’t have a lot of experience in the show.
Although Meneses has struggled with power this year, the numbers suggest he has gotten a bit unlucky. Meneses hit 13 home runs in 240 plate appearances last season, so the fact he has just two in 256 this year is odd. Of his 15 home runs, 10 came against right-handed pitchers like Smith-Shawver in roughly half the plate appearances.
Both of Meneses’ home runs this year came in road games against right-handed pitchers. Let’s get some exposure to him here in Truist Park, which ranks 15th in overall park factors but 12th for home runs. A fair price for this home run pick is +649 (13.4%), but we can buy the +750 (11.8%) at Caesars Sportsbook. Yet to sign up for Caesars? Get your first bet on the house up to $1,250.
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Joey Meneses +750 at Caesars
