Home runs, like touchdowns, can dramatically alter the course of a game. They can also dramatically alter your bankroll. OddsShopper’s market-based model can help you identify off-market or mispriced home run odds, which, in the long run, will help you turn a profit. Let’s dive into the top MLB home run bets and picks from OddsShopper’s model for today, which include Teoscar Hernandez. Sign up to access the model’s picks for everything from home run picks to tennis props!
Few sweats are more fun than home run bets. Waiting for your selected player to get his next at-bat — and then hoping they get the right pitch to send yard — can make any afternoon much more enjoyable. Especially when you hit. Readers looking for all the best MLB bets, picks and predictions throughout the season should check out OddsShopper’s articles and market-based models, including our Parlay Builder!
Best MLB Home Run Bets & Picks Today
Cincinnati Reds at Kansas City Royals | 8:10 p.m. ET on ESPN+
If you’ve got an ESPN+ subscription, you can sweat this one out in real time along with the broadcast. For today’s Reds and Royals game, I’ve got some thoughts of my own here, but OddsShopper’s model recommends getting some exposure to MJ Melendez.
The Cincinnati Reds will start RHP Luke Weaver (1-2), whose 6.28 ERA is bad but much worse than his 4.51 xERA. Still, Weaver has allowed 12 home runs this season, five of which have gone to left-handed batters like Melendez. Melendez owns five home runs this season, three of which have come against right-handed pitchers.
The Royals and Reds will square off in Kauffman Stadium, which ranks as the sixth-best park for hitters and seventh-best park for left-handed batters, per Statcast. Four of Melendez’s five home runs have come in his home park as well.
The best price on the market is at FanDuel for this one. OddsShopper’s model thinks a fair price for this home run pick is +479 (17.3%), but we can buy it at +520 (16.1%) at FanDuel. If you haven’t signed up for FanDuel, you can get a no-sweat first bet worth up to $2,500!
Best MLB Home Run Bet: MJ Melendez +520 at FanDuel
Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins | 9:40 p.m. ET
We have a bit of a longshot above, so let’s go with a big-name slugger for our second pick. Teoscar Hernandez has 11 home runs so far this season in 264 plate appearances. He even has a home run in each of his last two series! Note that 16 other home run picks are popping with positive expected value in OddsShopper’s market-based model; you can get a seven-day free trial until the end of today.
Hernandez will line up against LHP Jesus Luzardo (5-4) to start. Luzardo’s 3.79 ERA and 3.56 xERA are nothing to scoff at. However, he has allowed eight home runs to right-handed batters like Hernandez this season. Likewise, five of Hernandez’s 11 home runs (45.5%) have come against left-handed pitchers in only 66 plate appearances (25%).
Miami’s LoanDepot Park historically isn’t the best stadium for hitters, especially right-handed ones. This season, the park ranks 29th-worst for home runs by right-handed hitters, per Statcast, at 61. However, over a three-year rolling period, the park ranks a marginally better 28th with a factor of 77.
The early returns are LoanDepot Park don’t reflect what we should be seeing, and Hernandez is in a good spot to capitalize with a matchup against a left-handed pitcher. A fair price for this home run pick is +321 (23.4%), per our market-based model, but we can buy the +360 (21.7%) at FanDuel.
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Teoscar Hernandez +360 at FanDuel
