Few sweats are more fun than home run bets. Waiting for your selected player to get his next at-bat — and then hoping they get the right pitch to send yard — can make any afternoon much more enjoyable. Especially when you hit. Let’s dive into the top MLB home run bets and picks in OddsShopper’s market-based model for today, which include J.D. Martinez.
Readers looking for all the best MLB bets, picks and predictions throughout the season should check out OddsShopper’s articles and market-based models, including our Parlay Builder!
Best MLB Home Run Picks Today: J.D. Martinez & the L.A. Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds | 7:10 p.m. ET
We’ve got another battle between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ballpark on trap. One of the friendliest stadiums to hitters, Great American Ballpark ranks third for left-handed batters like Max Muncy. It ranks second for right-handed batters like J.D. Martinez.
Muncy has hit 18 home runs already this season. He has cooled down a bit after a hot start, but he should bounce back in a friendly spot. He’ll have some extra motivation after the Dodgers pulled him from the batting order yesterday as well.
Martinez, unlike Muncy, comes into this game hot. He has hit only 15 home runs this season, but 10 of those have come in his last 15 games. Martinez took advantage of Great American Ballpark last night with one home run. He has now hit a dinger in six of his last eight games.
Regardless, OddsShopper’s market-based model, which indexes the lines available at sharp books, gives Muncy a 28.6% chance of going yard tonight. That’s better than the +280 (26.3%) at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Likewise, Martinez owns a 25.7% chance to go yard, but we can buy him at +320 (23.8%) via Caesars Sportsbook. If you haven’t signed up for Caesars, your first bet is on them up to $1,250!
Best MLB Home Run Pick: Max Muncy +250 at FanDuel
Best MLB Home Run Pick: J.D. Martinez +320 at Caesars
San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies | 8:40 p.m. ET
We’ll wrap this column up with one play from Coors Field, but note that 19 other home run picks are popping with positive expected value. To view them, simply sign up for OddsShopper Premium; you can get a seven-day free trial until the end of the week.
Mitch Haniger only has four home runs to his name this season. He hit only 11 last year. He failed to hit a home run in the opening game of this series but managed a double. However, in his most recent trip to Coors Field before this one, Haniger knocked in a home run. That came all the way back in 2021 with the Seattle Mariners.
So although Haniger isn’t the best power hitter, he’ll play in a hitter-friendly stadium he has previously taken advantage of to go yard. Haniger sits at +420 (19.2%) on FanDuel to hit a home run, but OddsShopper’s market-based model gives him a 21.4% chance.
Best MLB Home Run Pick: Mitch Haniger +420 at FanDuel
