The Washington Nationals and Houston Astros put a bow on a three game series on Thursday night. The Nationals dropped the first two games and will look to salvage something in a tough matchup against RHP Cristian Javier. It could be tough for the Nats’ to score off Javier who has been one of the most consistent starting pitchers in baseball over the last four seasons. But there’s still some value on the bats in this game, so let’s look at the betting odds for Thursday’s Nationals-Astros game to make an MLB prediction and pick the best bet.
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Best MLB Nationals-Astros Betting Pick & Prediction: Don’t Sleep on Nats’ Bats
Nationals-Astros Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Nationals: +166 | Astros: -198
Over 8.0: -115 | Under 8.0: -105
The Astros are -198 favorites on the moneyline for Thursday’s game. Their short odds to get the win over the Nats is largely rests on the back of RHP Cristian Javier. The 26-year old is having another great season in 2023, his fourth in the big leagues. Javier is 7-1 with a 3.13 ERA and 74 strikeouts in 74.2 IP. He has posted a 1.06 WHIP while walking just nineteen batters all year. Javier was even better in 2022, putting up a 2.56 ERA across 25 starts and five relief appearances, and he had strong campaigns with the Astros in 2020 and 2021. He has simply been a model of consistency and a huge part of the club’s runs to the World Series.
The Nationals aren’t expected to do much in this one. Their implied team total is just 3.5 runs, which doesn’t bode well for the bats. But there could be hope for Washington. They eclipsed that total in three of their last four games and have a solid lineup combined with both rookies and veterans.
One of those veterans is 1B Joey Meneses. The 31-year old burst on the scene a year ago, getting off to a hot start and finishing the 2022 season with thirteen home runs in 222 ABs. He posted a .324 BA and .367 OBP, as well. The power hasn’t been there for Meneses so far this year, but he continues to flash a solid bat. Meneses is hitting .297 this year with a .727 OPS. Long thought to be a “4-A” type of player, Meneses is proving that he belongs in The Show.
The power numbers could come soon for Meneses. His chance to hit a home run is currently priced at +750 at FanDuel Sportsbook,which is too low for a player of Meneses’ caliber. OddsShopper’s market-based models finds the sharpest sportsbook in the industry and compares their lines to the rest of the market. Meneses’ MLB home run prop has a fair price of +664, leaving an 11% edge on this bet. The bet should hit around 13% of the time, so you won’t want to empty your pockets on this. But it’s rare to find 13% of expected ROI, so putting down around 5% of your bankroll makes sense if you’re following the Kelly Criterion for betting success.
Grab this one before the market moves.
Best Nationals-Astros MLB Pick: Joey Meneses Over 0.5 Home Runs (+750) at FanDuel
