Mitch Keller is in the midst of a breakthrough season, and today’s start against the Milwaukee Brewers is a great spot for him to pad his stats and go over his strikeouts prop. Let’s dive into the MLB player prop betting odds for Mitch Keller on tonight’s slate.
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Best MLB Player Prop Today: Mitch Keller | June 17
Mitch Keller Prop O/U 6.5 Strikeouts
In 87 innings and 14 starts so far this season, Mitch Keller has a low 3.30 xERA, a career-best, a similarly crisp 3.27 xFIP, also a career-best, and a high 28.2% SO rate (10.45/9, up from 20.1% & 7.81/9 last year). Keller’s swinging-strike rate (9.7%) isn’t overly impressive, but his elevated 28.9% CSW% (career best, up from 25.8% last year) suggests that his ability to strike out opposing batters at higher rates this season isn’t a fluke.
Keller strikes out 31.1% of lefties and 25% of righties and throws around 100 pitches per game, usually in between six to seven innings. Keller recorded seven or more strikeouts in eight out of his last 10 starts, and today’s matchup against Milwaukee should allow him to do so once more.
The Brewers have the second-lowest wRC+ (75) and second-highest collective SO rate (27.5%) against RHPs in the last month of baseball (703 PA). There are several strikeout-happy batters up and down Milwaukee’s lineup today. Specifically, Willy Adames (R, 23.3%), Victor Caratini (S, 25.3%), Rowdy Tellez (L, 25.4%), Brian Anderson (R, 28.9%) and Joey Wiemer (R, 29.2%) have struck out at a higher-than-average clip against RHPs this year.
In addition, Milwaukee’s lineup also includes Jesse Winker (L, 22.2%), who strikes out just slightly below the league’s average (22.7%). Luis Urias (R, 29.6%) also owns a high strikeout rate against RHPs this year, but that number is based on a small sample size of just 27 plate appearances, and he struck out a much lower clip last year (21.1%). While this isn’t Milwaukee’s most strikeout-friendly lineup, it’s still quite welcoming.
Considering Keller’s strikeout numbers, recent form and ability to go deep into games, the odds for him to record seven or more strikeouts in today’s favorable matchup, which slot in at +116 via FanDuel Sportsbook, are too good to pass up. These odds are better than Pinnacle’s (+113) and look even better compared to what other books offer (+100). If you haven’t signed up for FanDuel, you can get a no-sweat first bet worth up to $2,500 by clicking here!
Best MLB Player Prop Today: Mitch Keller Over 6.5 Strikeouts +116 at FanDuel
