Although Thursday’s MLB slate is a small one due to travel, there is some value on the later slate — but rain could be an issue for both games. I have two MLB player prop picks to watch today, and OddsShopper’s model has identified plenty of other options as well. You can also find today’s MLB home run picks here. Here are the players to watch and picks to make on the MLB player prop markets today, including Alec Bohm.
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Best MLB Player Props to Watch Today: Picks for Alec Bohm, Masataka Yoshida
Nationals-Phillies Player Prop
Watch: MLB TV Free Game of the Day
When: 6:40 p.m. ET
Where: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia
Who: Alec Bohm at FanDuel
The Philadelphia Phillies will host the Washington Nationals tonight. The Nats are expected to trot out veteran LHP Patrick Corbin, who has plenty of experience against this Phillies lineup. Unfortunately, that experience hasn’t been good for Corbin: active members of the Phillies are collectively hitting .319 against him with a .924 OPS. Few individual batters have been as successful as Alec Bohm, so we’ll target him tonight.
Bohm dominates against LHPs like Corbin. Not only has he recorded seven hits, four extra-base hits and two home runs in 20 at-bats against Corbin, good for a .750 SLG, but he has also racked up 35 hits, 14 extra-base hits and seven home runs in 106 at-bats against LHPs this year, good for a .594 SLG. Those numbers suggest Bohm should record more than 1.5 bases in between two and three at-bats against Corbin.
Corbin has also looked awful this year. His 5.03 ERA is already bad, but his 6.33 xERA is even worse and ranks in the fourth percentile. Corbin has ranked in the fifth percentile in xBA and xERA over the last two seasons, so there’s no reason to expect him to suddenly return to his All-Star form. We’ll have to pay up to back Bohm to record over 1.5 bases, as the odds come in at -130 (56.5%) via FanDuel Sportsbook, but that price is worth it in this spot. Let’s just hope the weather is agreeable.
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Best MLB Player Prop: Alec Bohm Over 1.5 Total Bases -130 for 1 Unit at FanDuel
Royals-Red Sox Player Prop
Watch: ESPN+ & Hulu
When: 7:10 p.m. ET
Where: Fenway Park, Boston
Who: Masataka Yoshida at BetMGM
The Kansas City Royals will start LHP Austin Cox today, but he’ll serve as an opener for RHP Alec Marsh, one of the biggest fades in the business. Marsh owns a terrible 6.75 ERA and an equally bad 6.74 xERA. He has coughed up 10 actual and nine expected home runs in just 28 innings of major-league action. Opposing LHBs have recorded a .603 SLG against him in 58 at-bats with eight extra-base hits and five home runs. Marsh’s already-bad ERA even balloons to 7.41 when he plays on the road.
I already have action on Rafael Devers for this game, and you can read about my picks here. But we’re not going to just stop with Devers — Masataka Yoshida, another LHB, will benefit substantially from the matchup today — if we can get the game in. Yoshida has been dominant against RHPs this year and is hitting .309 with 32 extra-base hits and nine home runs against them, good for a .488 SLG. Fenway Park has been good to Yoshida as well — he only has six home runs here, but his .520 SLG is impressive.
You’ll find Yoshida to record multiple bases priced at -135 (57.5%) via FanDuel, but we can get this number at +110 (47.6%) via BetMGM instead. While there is a decent chance we don’t actually get to see this game played today, we’ll get our money back if the action is postponed to tomorrow. Let’s trust Yoshida to get the job done at a very reasonable price when compared to the rest of the market. Lock this one in before any line movement.
Best MLB Player Prop: Masataka Yoshida Over 1.5 Total Bases +110 for 1 Unit at BetMGM
