Yesterday was frustrating. We split our props and advanced to 4-1 on the week, but our Adam Duvall bet didn’t void after he got scratched because we took it at FanDuel and he pinch hit in the 10th inning — only to get intentionally walked. But we’re still net up on the week, so let’s get right into tonight’s action as we break down the top player prop picks from the game you can watch nationwide tonight: Pirates-Marlins. I’ve got an angle, OddsShopper’s market-based model has an angle, so it’s time to secure the bag. Here are the players we’re picking on the MLB player prop markets, including Braxton Garrett.
Readers looking for all the best MLB bets, picks and predictions throughout the season should check out OddsShopper’s articles and market-based models, including our Parlay Builder!
Best MLB Player Props to Watch Today: Braxton Garrett, Jesus Sanchez
Boston Red Sox at Minnesota Twins | 7:40 p.m. ET on ESPN+
Isaiah’s Target: Jesus Sanchez
OddsShopper’s Model Target: Braxton Garrett
Let’s begin with what OddsShopper’s model forecasts for this game. The Miami Marlins will start LHP Braxton Garrett (3-2), whose 3.88 ERA is solid but unsustainable relative to his 4.52 xERA. Garrett has strung together consecutive strong outings but hasn’t gone for more than six innings in them. His longest outing was a 6.1-inning performance back in May.
Garrett may have racked up six strikeouts or more across his last three starts, but he is averaging exactly 5.5 strikeouts per game on the year, which is exactly where the books have opened the bidding on his strikeout prop. But Garrett’s home-away splits point to some value on the under — he is averaging only 5 per game at home with a 6.35 ERA, much worse than the 5.9 with a 2.18 ERA he is averaging on the road.
The model believes a fair price for the under is -103 (50.8%), largely because Pinnacle, a sharp book, has it priced at -119 (54.3%). That means the +104 (49%) at FanDuel Sportsbook looks like a solid deal. For more +EV plays and mispriced and high-value props, check out OddsShopper Premium.
Best MLB Player Prop: Braxton Garrett Under 5.5 Strikeouts +104 at FanDuel
With the model’s pick out of the way, let’s dive into my MLB player prop for today. The Pittsburgh Pirates will start RHP Mitch Keller (8-3). Although Keller’s 3.62 ERA and 3.42 xERA are stellar, he has been vulnerable to left-handed power. Keller has given up five home runs and 18 extra-base hits to left-handed batters this year.
I want exposure to one of Miami’s primary left-handed sluggers, outfielder Jesus Sanchez, in this spot. The Marlins almost always feature him in their lineup against right-handed starters and are sure to do so because of their shorthandedness — both Jean Segura and Jazz Chisholm are on the injured list. My favorite MLB props to watch today are Sanchez to go over 1.5 bases and to get a home run — at least at the current pricing.
Sanchez has racked up a whopping 18 extra-base hits and six home runs across 132 at-bats this season, which yields a .847 OPS. Those big plays have primarily come against RHPs: 16 of Sanchez’s 18 extra-base hits came against RHPs, as did five of his six home runs. Let’s lock the over 1.5 bases in at odds of +135 (42.6%) at FanDuel. Members of OddsShopper Insider Access locked this in at +145 (40.8%). New to FanDuel? If you sign up now, you’ll get access to Dinger Tuesday and can get a no-sweat first bet worth up to $1,000!
Best MLB Player Prop: Jesus Sanchez Over 1.5 Bases +145 at FanDuel
