After an easy 2-0 sweep last night, we’ve got a two-game card on FOX this evening. I have two MLB player prop picks to watch today, and OddsShopper’s model has identified plenty of other options as well. You can also find today’s MLB home run picks here. Without further ado, here are the players to watch and picks to make on the MLB player prop markets today, including Bryan Reynolds.
Looking for winning MLB bets posted daily? OddsShopper has you covered! Check out our MLB articles and our MLB bet shopping pages that use our industry-leading betting model to find plays with positive expected value (+EV) each day. We even have a Parlay Builder! If you’re hungry for more than just the picks we post for free, sign up for OddsShopper Premium today — new users can get their first month for 70% off.
Best MLB Player Props to Watch Today: Picks for Bryan Reynolds, Jake Bauers
New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros | 7:15 p.m. ET on FOX
Isaiah’s Target: Jake Bauers at FanDuel
The New York Yankees will host the Houston Astros tonight. Houston is expected to start RHP Cristian Javier, who I believe is exceptionally overrated. Despite his 7-2 record, Javier owns a 4.33 ERA and a 4.49 xERA. He has coughed up team highs in actual (15) and expected (19.3) home runs. Javier has fared terribly against LHBs, allowing them to hit .281 against him with 27 extra-base hits and nine home runs, good for a .838 OPS. Yankee Stadium is a tough park for LHBs, but Bauers still has 13 extra-base hits and four home runs here.
It’s unclear if the Yankees will use Bauers tonight, but they should — he is one of their best sources of left-handed power. Bauers doesn’t clear the eligibility threshold at Baseball Savant, but if he did, he would rank second on the Yanks in expected weighted on-base average at .377, trailing only Aaron Judge’s elite .495. That’s far better than the .319 that New York’s only everyday LHB, Anthony Rizzo, has recorded. Although Bauers is still fighting for his role on this team, he has started the team’s last four games, through which he has four hits, three extra-base hits and two home runs.
You’ll want to be careful with this MLB player prop to watch tonight. Although Bauers should play, not every book will give you your money back if he doesn’t start but comes in as a pinch-hitter later in the game. Those who do have his total bases prop set to 0.5 with the juice stacked on the over. As a result, I suggest waiting for the Yankees to release an official starting lineup before getting action on Bauers to record over 1.5 bases at +160 (38.5%) via FanDuel Sportsbook.
New to FanDuel? If you sign up now, you’ll get access to Dinger Tuesday and can get $100 in bonus bets by placing a $5 wager!
Best MLB Player Prop: Jake Bauers Over 1.5 Total Bases +160 for 0.75 Units at FanDuel
Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers | 7:15 p.m. ET on FOX
Isaiah’s Target: Bryan Reynolds at BetMGM
I don’t have much faith in RHP Adrian Hauser. Hauser ranks as one of Milwaukee’s worst pitchers, as his 4.43 ERA and 4.53 xERA suggest. Although he has been better at home, he has struggled against LHBs. Hauser is letting them hit .274 with 10 extra-base hits and five home runs, good for a .823 OPS. He also recorded a dismal 5.66 ERA in July across four starts and 20.2 innings pitched. Opposing batters have a .271 xBA against him as well, which ranks second worst among the entire Brewers staff.
Unfortunately for Hauser, the Pirates have plenty of LHBs with power in Jack Suwinski and Bryan Reynolds, and we’ll target one of them tonight. I’m taking Reynolds in this spot because of his previous success when lined up with Hauser — Reynolds is hitting .278 with two extra-base hits across 18 at-bats against him. Further, Reynolds has lit up RHPs for 27 extra-base hits and 10 home runs this year, good for a .779 OPS. He’ll face the Brewers in American Family Field tonight, which should help, as Reynolds is hitting .285 on the road with 23 extra-base hits and nine home runs.
The price for this one varies somewhat across the market. You’ll find the over for Reynold’s total bases set to 1.5 everywhere, but the over is priced at -110 (52.4%) via FanDuel but only +110 (48.6%) via BetMGM. Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists the over at +109 (48.4%). We’re not getting a ton of edge relative to the sharp number, but we’re getting enough relative to other books for me to pull the trigger on this one at BetMGM.
Best MLB Player Prop: Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 Total Bases +110 for 1 Unit at BetMGM
