We split our MLB props for Monday’s televised action, but it was a small slate without much to choose from. Although we have plenty of games on tap tonight, only one will grace the nation in primetime: Twins-Braves on TBS. Fortunately, I’ve got an angle, OddsShopper’s market-based model has an angle, so it’s time to secure the bag. Here are the players to watch and picks to make on the MLB player prop markets today, including an under for Matt Olson.
Readers looking for all the best MLB bets, picks and predictions throughout the season should check out OddsShopper’s articles and market-based models, including our Parlay Builder!
Best MLB Player Props to Watch Today: Bryce Elder, Matt Olson
Minnesota Twins at Atlanta Braves | 7:20 p.m. ET on TBS
Isaiah’s Target: Bryce Elder
OddsShopper’s Model Target: Matt Olson
Let’s target RHP Bryce Elder (5-1) here. While I doubt his strong start to the year is sustainable, largely because his 2.40 ERA is much lower than his 3.77 xERA, this remains a favorable spot to target him. He’ll take on a Twins lineup that has struck out on 30.5% of its at-bats against RHPs. Minnesota leads the MLB in total strikeouts taken per game as well at 10.2.
Elder doesn’t rack up a ton of strikeouts, but his 7.5 K/9 this season is high enough to justify backing him here. It helps that this number ticks up slightly to 7.8 K/9 when he plays at home. Because he usually makes it deep into games, Elder has recorded at least six strikeouts in eight of his 15 total starts.
I’m surprised to see the market for Elder’s strikeouts sitting at 5.5 with the over priced at +110 (47.6%) via DraftKings Sportsbook. The market should be higher on Elder, especially in a plus matchup against a strikeout-heavy team like the Twins. You’ll find this prop at a much fairer -104 (50.9%) via FanDuel Sportsbook at the moment.
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Best MLB Player Prop: Bryce Elder Over 5.5 Strikeouts at DraftKings
Let’s turn to what MLB player props picks OddsShopper’s model likes today. It wants action on another member of the Atlanta Braves, slugger Matt Olson, to stay under on the RBI markets. Olson is yet to face Minnesota’s starting pitcher, RHP Joe Ryan (8-4), but Ryan has an impressive 2.98 ERA and 2.43 xERA. Plating runs against him tonight will prove difficult.
The market isn’t pricing this prop at the correct number. Although Olson has a whopping 60 RBIs this year, he has zero RBIs in 43 of his 78 games (55.1%). Using the market consensus and adjusting for hold, the model thinks a fair price is -165 (62.3%). However, you can buy the under at only -145 (59.2%) via Caesars Sportsbook — let’s get action on that number in before it disappears. For more +EV plays and mispriced and high-value props, check out OddsShopper Premium.
Best MLB Player Prop: Matt Olson Under 0.5 RBIs -145 at Caesars
