Baseball action abounds tonight, and I’m back to give you my favorite props on the slate. I have two MLB player prop picks for today’s televised action, and OddsShopper’s model has identified plenty of other options as well — including one highlighted below. Without further ado, here are the players to watch and picks to make on the MLB player prop markets today, including Bryce Harper.
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Best MLB Player Props to Watch Today: Bryce Harper, Jon Gray
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles | 6:40 p.m. ET on ESPN+
Isaiah’s Target: Bryce Harper at DraftKings
Today’s first televised game, Phillies-Orioles, will appear on ESPN+ at 6:40 p.m. RHP Dean Kremer will take the mound for Baltimore, which may not go well for the O’s. Kremer hasn’t been terrible this year, but his 4.80 ERA is not sustainable relative to his 5.63 xERA. The wheels have started to come off again for Kremer after a solid early summer stretch — he got beat up by the Los Angeles Dodgers in his last start for a 1.90 WHIP.
Bryce Harper has been a bit colder than usual since the All-Star Break, but he still leads the Phillies in expected weighted on-base average, or xwOBA, at .362. He swatted a bunch of extra-base hits on July 15 but is yet to hit another. However, Kremer’s struggles, a hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park and the wind blowing out to center field all point to value here. Let’s trust Harper to get some of his power back tonight.
We can get Harper to record over 1.5 bases at odds of -110 (52.4%) via DraftKings Sportsbook. The entire market has settled on this price, you’ll find it at the same odds on both FanDuel and BetMGM. Even Pinnacle, a sharp book, has the price for this prop listed at -109 (52.1%). I don’t anticipate much line movement here, but this one is worth enough action to secure a half-unit profit.
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Best MLB Player Prop: Bryce Harper Over 1.5 Total Bases -110 for 0.55 Units at DraftKings
Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners | 7:40 p.m. ET on ESPN+
Isaiah’s Target: Max Kepler at FanDuel
Later in the evening, we’ll get a Mariners-Twins battle on ESPN+. RHP Luis Castillo will take the mound for Seattle. While Castillo has been good, his numbers aren’t super sustainable — his 3.04 ERA is a touch worse than his 3.80 xERA. Castillo also benefits from playing in one of the pitcher-friendliest parks in baseball, so the trip to a league-average Target Field could go poorly. Castillo owns a 3.51 ERA on the road.
Kepler is a great spot to take advantage of Castillo. He went 2-for-5 against him with a home run last week in Seattle. Kepler has been one of the unluckiest batters in baseball this year with a .309 wOBA but a .333 xwOBA. Kepler is also a split-heavy batter, which favors him in this spot, as we’ve seen him rack up 43 hits and 20 extra-base hits against RHPs on the year.
Unlike the Harper pick, the odds for Kepler’s total bases vary pretty substantially across the market. You’ll find Pinnacle pricing the over at +118 (45.8%) while both BetMGM and DraftKings have it set to +120 (45.5%) — so the +135 (42.6%) at FanDuel Sportsbook stands out as quite the deal. Let’s wager just enough to profit a full unit.
Best MLB Player Prop: Max Kepler Over 1.5 Total Bases +135 for 0.75 Units at FanDuel
Texas Rangers at Houston Astros | 8:10 p.m. ET on MLB TV
OddsShopper’s Target: Jon Gray at FanDuel
Let’s turn to OddsShopper’s target for this evening, which comes on the Rangers-Astros game you can watch for free via MLB TV. The Rangers will start RHP Jon Gray, whose 3.31 ERA far outpaces his 4.43 xERA. Gray started against the Astros in late June and lasted six innings but allowed a 1.22 WHIP and five earned runs. He struck out only four batters. Unsurprisingly, the under is one of OddsShopper’s top MLB prop picks you can watch tonight.
Some books have set the total for Gray’s strikeouts at 5.5 tonight, and you’ll find the under priced at only -140 (58.3%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. However, Pinnacle has the total set to only 4.5 with the under priced at +125 (44.4%). The other major books are in agreement with Pinnacle about where the total should be. OddsShopper’s model thinks a fair price for the under 5.5 is -153 (60.5%), so we’re getting a decent squeeze of value at the current number.
Best MLB Player Prop: Jon Gray Under 5.5 Strikeouts -140 at FanDuel
