The props to watch column had its first-ever winless showing on Thursday. However, we’re still at 4-3 the week, and we’re net up by a sizeable margin. Let’s get right into tonight’s action as we break down the top player prop picks from the games you can watch nationwide today: Mets-Phillies, Astros-Dodgers and Twins-Tigers. (Cubs-Cardinals is also on FOX at 1 p.m.; you can find my bet for it here). Anyway, I’ve got some angle, OddsShopper’s market-based model has some angle, so it’s time to secure the bag. Here are the players we’re picking on the MLB player prop markets, including Bryce Harper.
Readers looking for all the best MLB bets, picks and predictions throughout the season should check out OddsShopper’s articles and market-based models, including our Parlay Builder!
Best MLB Player Props to Watch Today: Bryce Harper, Reese Olson
New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies | 4:05 p.m. ET on FS1
Isaiah’s Target: Bryce Harper
Today is a good day to fade RHP Max Scherzer (6-2). The Mets will have to play this one outside of Citi Field, and Scherzer’s 4.04 ERA spikes to 4.57 on the road. Sharps are buying up the over this morning as well. I want action on one player who has owned Scherzer throughout his career: Bryce Harper.
In 22 career at-bats against Scherzer, Harper has racked up six hits and five extra-base hits. He owns four RBIs and six walks as well. His 1.201 OPS against Scherzer is quite impressive, and it aligns with what we’ve seen him do against other RHPs — Harper owns a 1.017 OPS against them this year.
Across 99 plate appearances against RHPs this season, Harper has 37 hits, 11 extra-base hits and two home runs. In 2022, he faced RHPs for 253 at-bats, and he recorded 76 hits, 33 extra-base hits and 15 home runs. While the base hits have been there for him this year, one wonders where the extra bases have gone. Look for Harper to get at least one of them today.
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Best MLB Player Prop: Bryce Harper Over 1.5 Bases +100 at FanDuel
Houston Astros at Los Angeles Dodgers | 7:15 p.m. ET on FOX
OddsShopper’s Model Target: Ronel Blanco
Let’s turn to what OddsShopper’s model likes tonight. The model wants exposure to Houston’s starting pitcher, RHP Ronel Blanco (1-0), in a profoundly unfavorable matchup. Blanco takes on a Dodgers lineup that ranks second in expected weighted on-base average, or xwOBA, at .346. Their already-impressive .769 OPS improves to .787 when they play at home as well.
Blanco may not make it far into this game. Since he entered Houston’s starting rotation earlier this month, Blanco has averaged 5.2 innings pitched per outing with exactly five strikeouts in each appearance. While those games came against some tough offenses in the Los Angeles Angels and Toronto Blue Jays, those offenses are still a standard deviation below the Dodgers.
The books have set the prop line for Blanco’s strikeouts at 4.5. However, some books haven’t stacked the juice on the under sufficiently. Pinnacle, a sharp book, is pricing the under at -166 (62.4%). Using the market consensus and adjusting for hold, OddsShopper’s model thinks a fair price is -134 (57.3%). However, you can buy the under 4.5 at only -125 (55.6%) via BetMGM — lock that number in before it disappears. For more +EV plays and mispriced and high-value props, check out OddsShopper Premium.
Best MLB Player Prop: Ronel Blanco Under 4.5 Strikeouts -125 at BetMGM
Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers | 7:15 p.m. ET on FOX
Isaiah’s Target: Reese Olson
Tonight’s nightcap features the AL Central leaders, the 39-38 Minnesota Twins, against the 32-42 Detroit Tigers. Every team in the AL East still has a better record than the Twins. Problems with divisions aside, bettors should note that we’ve got a pair of struggling pitchers on the mound. Detroit will start RHP Reese Olson (0-2), whose 5.59 ERA is inflated relative to his 3.96 xERA. Minnesota will start LHP Pablo Lopez (3-4), whose 4.40 ERA is also inflated relative to his 3.22 xERA.
Fortunately for both pitchers, they’ll line up against underwhelming — and underperforming — offenses. The Tigers rank a dismal 29th in weighted on-base average, or wOBA, at .294. They fare this poorly despite owning an xwOBA of .317, which is only slightly below the MLB average. Unfortunately, their individual leader in xwOBA, outfielder Riley Greene, is stuck on the injured list. The Twins rank 18th in wOBA at .312 and 16th in xwOBA at .321.
Despite his hit-or-miss showings and relatively high ERA, Olson has flashed some pretty good stuff. His 8.95 K/9 is solid, and he has struck out at least six batters in half of his four starts. He’ll get another chance to rack up the Ks today, as Minnesota’s batters lead the MLB in strikeouts taken per game (10.2). Let’s lock in Olson to go over his relatively low strikeout prop total of 5.5 at +102 (49.5%) via FanDuel.
Best MLB Player Prop: Reese Olson Over 5.5 Strikeouts +102 at FanDuel
