After a loaded card of baseball action yesterday, today offers up just one televised game: Rockies-Astros on ESPN+. That game will get underway at 2:10 p.m. ET, so you’ll need to get your action down early. I’ve got one MLB player prop pick for today’s televised action that OddsShopper’s model agrees with, so let’s secure the bag. Here is the player to watch and pick to make on the MLB player prop markets today: RHP Chase Anderson.
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Best MLB Player Props to Watch Today: Chase Anderson, Houston Astros
Colorado Rockies at Houston Astros | 2:10 p.m. ET on ESPN+
Isaiah & OddsShopper’s Target: Chase Anderson at FanDuel
The Houston Astros will host the Colorado Rockies early today, and I don’t have much faith in Colorado’s starting pitcher, RHP Chase Anderson, to make it that far into Wednesday’s game. Anderson’s last three starts have each yielded double-digit losses for the Rockies. Anderson owns a jaw-dropping 21.22 ERA through that stretch. He recorded nine total strikeouts across those three starts. Anderson’s 6.76 K/9 usually makes fading him on strikeout markets a profitable strategy.
We’ve got two other factors supporting this play. First, Anderson’s home-away splits are nuts. His already-bad 6.76 K/9 dips to 5.96 K/9 on the road. He has just 10 strikeouts in four appearances outside of his home ballpark this season. Second, the Astros are efficient in the batter’s box. They rank fourth in strikeout rate at only 20.8%, which ticks down to 20% when they play at home. Anderson doesn’t have an easy job ahead of him today, and not all markets are fully recognizing this reality.
We can buy Anderson to stay under 3.5 strikeouts at odds of +112 (47.2) via FanDuel Sportsbook. The rest of the market has landed on a different number. At DraftKings and BetMGM, you’ll find the under priced at -105 (51.2%) — Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists it at odds of -104 (50.9%). OddsShopper’s model agrees with my reasoning and projects a fair price to be +106 (48.5%). We’re getting a considerable chunk of value on this MLB player prop to watch at FanDuel today, so let’s lock it in and hope to watch Anderson struggle on ESPN+ today.
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Best MLB Player Prop: Chase Anderson Under 3.5 Strikeouts +112 at FanDuel
