On Monday’s tiny MLB slate, only two games will appear on national television or streaming services: first, the Chicago Cubs-Milwaukee Brewers, which will get underway at 2:10 p.m. ET on ESPN+; then, Los Angeles Angels-San Diego Padres, which will get underway at 9:40 p.m. on FS1. I’ve got one MLB player prop pick for today’s televised action and OddsShopper has one, too, so let’s secure the bag. Here is the player to watch and pick to make on the MLB player prop markets today: LHP Drew Smyly.
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Best MLB Player Props to Watch Today: Drew Smyly, Juan Soto
Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers | 2:10 p.m. ET on ESPN+
Isaiah’s Target: Drew Smyly at BetMGM
I’m thinking outside of the box with this pick. LHP Drew Smyly owns a solid 3.96 ERA and 3.68 xERA but isn’t known for his ability to rack up strikeouts. Smyly has just 71 strikeouts on the season, good for 7.4 K/9. He is averaging 4.4 strikeouts per start.
But the books — at least some of them — have stacked the juice on Smyly to go over 4.5 strikeouts tonight. We can still find the over 4.5 priced down at -135 (57.5%) via BetMGM, so I recommend taking advantage of that price. You’ll find it priced all the way down at -139 (58.1%) at Pinnacle, a sharp book.
Although Smyly doesn’t often beat this number, he has several times this season. We’ve seen him go for five-plus strikeouts five times. When he does miss, it’s usually not by much — Smyly has recorded at least four strikeouts 11 times.
We’re honing in on Smyly because the Milwaukee Brewers have been inefficient in the strikeout column this year, especially against LHPs. With a 25.4% K% against all pitchers, the Brewers rank 28th. That number gets worse — they own a 28% K% when facing LHPs.
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Los Angeles Angels at San Diego Padres | 9:40 p.m. ET on ESPN+
OddsShopper’s Model Target: Juan Soto at FanDuel
Let’s conclude with one of OddsShopper’s top MLB player prop picks to watch for today: Juan Soto. Soto draws a matchup against the Los Angeles Angels and RHP Jaime Barria, whose 2.92 ERA masks a much less convincing 4.41 xERA.
Soto, one of the few Padres who hasn’t performed disappointingly this season, has scored 46 runs in 84 games. He has crossed the plate at least once in 36 of those contests. Since he usually bats third, he has plenty of power behind him to help, including Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts.
OddsShopper’s market-based model doesn’t really care about those factors, which are already baked into the price. It does care about finding an edge relative to the market, so with DraftKings charging -145 (59.2%) for this prop and a fair market price projected around -123 (55.2%), the -115 (53.5%) at FanDuel looks quite attractive.
Best MLB Player Prop: Juan Soto Over 0.5 Runs -115 at FanDuel
