Last night saw us cash in on Freddie Freeman’s total bases — and home runs — on Dinger Tuesday. I have two MLB player prop picks for today’s televised action, and OddsShopper’s model has identified plenty of other options as well, including one featured below. You can also find today’s MLB home run picks here. Without further ado, here are the players to watch and picks to make on the MLB player prop markets today, including Elly De La Cruz.
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Best MLB Player Props to Watch Today: Elly De La Cruz, Ronald Acuna
Reds Brewers | 2:10 p.m. ET on MLB TV
Isaiah’s Target: Elly De La Cruz at FanDuel
I don’t love any props for players to perform well at the plate or on the mound, but I don’t mind getting some limited action on a stolen base prop for today’s MLB TV free game of the day. Elly De La Cruz and the Cincinnati Reds remain in Milwaukee for the third game of this series. De La Cruz has taken on the Brewers eight times already this year and has four stolen bases against them, although three of those came in one game. Still, there’s value to be found in backing him to get another today.
De La Cruz has the speed necessary to cash the over for this prop tonight. He ranks tied for 25th in total steals (17) despite only getting called up in June and playing in just 42 games. He’ll take on a Brewers team that ranks tied for 24th in steals allowed per game (0.86) and steals allowed per game at home (0.9). Although catcher William Contreras ranks 26th in pop time to second base (1.95), three of De La Cruz’s steals came against him. You’ll find this prop priced as short as +120 (45.5%), so let’s buy the +136 (42.4%) at FanDuel Sportsbook.
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Best MLB Player Prop: Elly De La Cruz To Record a Stolen Base +136 for 0.25 Units at FanDuel
Atlanta Braves at Boston Red Sox | 7 p.m. ET on ESPN
Isaiah’s Target: Ronald Acuna Jr. at FanDuel
Fenway Park may not be the best stadium for RHBs to hit home runs, but it’s a great park for them to record multiple bases. The stadium ranks third in overall park factors to RHBs despite ranking only 18th for home runs. Ronald Acuna Jr. takes on the Red Sox at Fenway tonight, and as the MLB’s leader in expected weighted on-base average at .449, he has a better chance of recording multiple bases than not. It certainly helps that the wind will be blowing out through center field, which should make this MLB player prop pick extra fun to watch today since he has a chance to go yard.
Acuna takes on Boston’s RHP Brayan Bello, who has mostly contained RHBs this year but has still allowed five home runs and 13 extra-base hits to them. Acuna accounted for one of those home runs in a previous home stand against Bello. Further, Acuna has feasted against RHPs for 41 extra-base hits and 18 home runs this season, so for all Bello’s success against same-handed batters, I’m still fading him tonight. Acuna is yet to get a hit in Fenway this year but recorded four of them in 10 at-bats last season.
Best MLB Player Prop: Ronald Acuna Over 1.5 Total Bases -135 for 0.75 Units at FanDuel
New York Mets at New York Yankees | 7:05 p.m. ET on ESPN+
OddsShopper’s Target: Jose Quintana at SuperBook
Let’s turn to OddsShopper’s top MLB player prop to watch this evening. The New York Mets and New York Yankees will continue the second leg of the Subway Series from Yankee Stadium on ESPN+. The Mets will start LHP Jose Quintana for just the second time this season tonight. His first start saw him last five innings against the Chicago White Sox, but he recorded only three strikeouts. The now-34-year-old veteran played in 32 games last year and recorded 4.3 strikeouts per game.
OddsShopper wants action on the under for Quintana’s total strikeouts. The total sits at 3.5, but we’ll find the under priced at a friendly +105 (48.8%) via SuperBook. The Mets rank a solid fifth in strikeouts taken per game (7.97) and will be a tough opponent for the aging Quintana to punch out. Most other books have the under on the other side of even, with FanDuel listing it at -104 (50.9%) and Pinnacle, a sharp book, at -113 (53.1%). Let’s take advantage of the market disagreement and get some exposure to this one.
Best MLB Player Prop: Jose Quintana Under 3.5 Strikeouts +105 at Superbook
