Last night was fun! We cashed a +145 ticket on Willy Adames early and followed that by cashing a +105 ticket on Randy Arozarena late. I have two MLB player props to watch today, and OddsShopper’s model has identified plenty of other options as well. You can also find today’s MLB home run picks here. Here are the players to watch and picks to make on the MLB player prop markets today, including Freddie Freeman, for Dodgers-Guardians and Reds-Diamondbacks.
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Best MLB Player Props to Watch Today: Freddie Freeman, Christian Walker
Dodgers-Guardians Player Prop
Watch: MLB TV Free Game of the Day
When: 3:10 p.m. ET
Where: Progressive Field, Cleveland
Who: Freddie Freeman at DraftKings
The Los Angeles Dodgers will wrap up their first game against the Cleveland Guardians early on Thursday afternoon before playing them again a little later. The Guardians are expected to start RHP Gavin Williams in Game 2. Williams has been solid this year, but his 3.02 ERA is much better than his 4.18 xERA, and his .387 xSLG is just slightly above the league average. He has coughed up a .230 BA and .430 SLG to LHBs as well.
Freddie Freeman is your best target in today’s Dodgers-Guardians game. Although the veteran LHB is better against LHPs than RHPs, he still owns a .324 BA and .521 SLG against opposite-handed hurlers. Freeman leads the Dodgers with a .319 xBA and ranks second with a .573 xSLG. He is a 99th and 98th percentile player in the two metrics, respectively. Let’s trust him to get a pair of hits, a double — or something more — at odds of -120 (54.6%) via DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Best Twins-Brewers MLB Player Prop: Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 Total Bases -120 at DraftKings
Reds-Diamondbacks Player Prop
Watch: FS1
When: 6:40 p.m. ET
Where: Chase Field, Phoenix
Who: Christian Walker at DraftKings
As the Arizona Diamondbacks are fighting for their playoff hopes, they’ll get a chance to overtake the Cincinnati Reds for the final Wild Card berth. The two teams are half a game apart and are playing a three-game series that begins tonight. With the Reds starting LHP Brandon Williamson, who owns a 4.99 xERA and .455 xSLG — both of which are in the 20th percentile or worse — we’re getting some action on the D-backs. It helps that Williamson has coughed up a .234 BA and .450 SLG to RHBs.
Of all RHBs on the D-backs, Christian Walker stands out as the best bet to record multiple bases. Walker’s .248 xBA isn’t the best, but his .456 xSLG is in the 72nd percentile. He also owns a .275 BA and .633 SLG against LHPs this season, with 17 extra-base hits and 11 home runs in only 109 at-bats against them. It helps that Arizona’s Chase Field ranks tied for seventh in overall park factors for RHBs and is second for doubles. Anything north of +105 (48.8%) is a good deal for this MLB player prop pick to watch today, so play the +115 (46.5%) at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Best Reds-Diamondbacks MLB Player Prop: Christian Walker Over 1.5 Total Bases +115 at DraftKings
Today’s Best MLB & Sportsbook Promotions
