Let’s go! We started the week off well by hitting two of our televised MLB player props. I’m looking to keep the momentum rolling today. I have two MLB player prop picks for today’s televised action, and OddsShopper’s model has identified plenty of other options as well. Without further ado, here are the players to watch and picks to make on the MLB player prop markets today, including Freddie Freeman.
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Best MLB Player Props to Watch Today: Freddie Freeman, D.J. LeMahieu
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets | 7:05 p.m. ET on TBS
Isaiah’s Target: D.J. LeMahieu at FanDuel
The New York Mets will start RHP Justin Verlander tonight, and although Verlander is certainly a Hall of Famer, this hasn’t been a Hall of Fame season for the 40-year-old. Tonight, Verlander must take on RHB D.J. LeMahieu, who, while not the most intimidating opponent, has often gotten the best of Verlander. LeMahieu has eight hits in 25 at-bats against Verlander, good for a steady batting average of .320.
LeMahieu isn’t having his best season this year, but he has been serviceable this year, especially against RHPs. He is hitting only .233 both overall and against RHPs. However, his weighted on-base average of .292 slots in well below his expected weighted on-base average, or xwOBA, at .316, which suggests he has gotten somewhat unlucky. The splits reveal LeMahieu got a bit cold in late May and June but has since bounced back — he has hit .258 in July so far and .344 through the last 15 days.
As the market sorts itself out, the value of taking LeMahieu to record a hit will become more apparent. He has at least one hit in 11 of his last 12 games. The infielder owns odds of -190 (65.5%) at FanDuel Sportsbook to do so, which slots in far below the -220 (68.8%) at DraftKings and the -233 (70%) at Pinnacle. Don’t expect FanDuel’s number to just sit there all day. Let’s wager enough to secure a half-unit profit.
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Best MLB Player Prop: D.J. LeMahieu To Record a Hit -190 for 0.95 Units at FanDuel
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Toronto Blue Jays | 10:10 p.m. ET on ESPN+
Isaiah’s Target: Freddie Freeman at BetMGM
Those looking for some late-night action should turn their attention to this evening’s Dodgers-Blue Jays game. Both starting pitchers, RHP Chris Bassitt and LHP Julio Urias, have looked beatable. I’m focusing my attention on fading Bassitt in this spot, as he’ll have to start on the road, where he has struggled all season. His 3.92 ERA balloons to 5.81 on the road. His xERA also slots in at 4.40. Further, Bassitt has underperformed against opposite-handed batters with 27 extra-base hits and 14 home runs allowed, good for a .891 OPS.
Freddie Freeman is primarily known for knocking around same-handed pitchers, but he has stepped up somewhat against opposite-handed ones this year. Freeman has recorded 37 extra-base hits and nine home runs against RHPs this year, good for a .960 OPS. He leads the Dodgers in both wOBA (.416) and xwOBA (.418) and is a threat to go off every night. With the wind blowing out through right field this evening, Freeman and the rest of the Dodgers lefties should benefit.
Unlike the aforementioned LeMahieu prop, the market has mostly settled on a fair price for this Freeman wager. Pinnacle, a sharp book, has set his total bases prop to 1.5 with the over priced at -108 (51.9%). You’ll find it at -110 (52.4%) or worse everywhere else except BetMGM, where this MLB player prop pick to watch today comes in at only -105 (51.2%). Let’s take advantage of that minor market-based edge before it evaporates!
Best MLB Player Prop: Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 Total Bases -105 for 0.75 Units at BetMGM
