Who doesn’t love baseball? We all do now, especially with the NBA and NHL seasons in the books. Yesterday’s props to watch column went 2-0, so I’m hoping to roll that momentum forward tonight. Let’s dive into the top MLB player prop picks, one from me, and one from OddsShopper’s market-based model, for the games you can watch on national television today, including one for Freddie Freeman.
Readers looking for all the best MLB bets, picks and predictions throughout the season should check out OddsShopper’s articles and market-based models, including our Parlay Builder!
Best MLB Player Props to Watch Today: Freddie Freeman, Francisco Alvarez
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets | 7:00 p.m. ET on ESPN
I’ve got some other thoughts — and a pick, of course — regarding the second round of the Subway Series you can read about here, but some of the highest-value bets in OddsShopper’s market-based model actually come from this game as well.
The Yankees will start RHP Gerrit Cole (7-1) tonight. Although Cole owns an impressive 2.84 ERA, his 4.03 xERA suggests he isn’t as unbeatable as that number makes it appear. One member of the New York Mets offense stands out against him.
Catcher Francisco Alvarez should get the best of Cole this evening — at least once. Alvarez owns odds of -150 (60%) at FanDuel to get a hit. OddsShopper’s model thinks a fair price is -168 (62.7%), so we’re getting enough value here to warrant putting some action down.
That may not be a life-changing amount of edge, if you haven’t signed up for FanDuel yet, you’re in luck — new users at FanDuel can get a no-sweat first bet worth up to $2,500!
Best MLB Player Prop: Francisco Alvarez To Record a Hit -150 at FanDuel
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox | 10:00 p.m. ET on ESPN
After the Yankees-Mets game wraps up, ESPN will flip the action over to the Chicago White Sox and Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers took the first game of this series with a commanding 5-1 win that saw two L.A. batters hit home runs in the first inning.
The Chicago White Sox have a righty-heavy rotation and bullpen, and tonight’s starting pitcher, RHP Mike Clevinger (3-4), is no exception. Clevinger owns an acceptable 4.19 ERA, but his 4.75 xERA suggests that that number is a bit inflated.
I expect the Dodgers’ left-handed batters to step up both tonight and during this series. We already saw a home run from David Peralta last night. Clevinger has surrendered 23 hits and an OPS of .833 to left-handed batters this season as well.
Freddie Freeman didn’t do much in the first game of this series. He walked once and struck out twice across four plate appearances. However, Freeman owns an elite .989 OPS in games against right-handed starters. Although he has just one career hit in nine plate appearances against Clevinger, that hit was a home run.
Let’s back Freeman to record at least two bases tonight for +100 at BetMGM, which he can do with any extra-base hit or two singles. This prop will cost you -101 at Pinnacle and -115 at FanDuel. New to BetMGM? You can get first-bet insurance worth up to $1,000 when registering!
Best MLB Player Prop: Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 Bases +100 at BetMGM
