After an 8-2 run last week, the props to watch column started off with a win last night — Zach McKinstry knocked in a double and cashed our +105 ticket on his bases. I’m hoping that we can keep this tear rolling. Let’s get into the top player prop picks, both of which are from me because OddsShopper’s market-based model doesn’t see much value in the MLB games you can watch today, which are Braves-Phillies and Dodgers-Angels. Without further ado, here are the players we’re picking on the MLB player prop markets, including Freddie Freeman.
Readers looking for all the best MLB bets, picks and predictions throughout the season should check out OddsShopper’s articles and market-based models, including our Parlay Builder!
Best MLB Player Props to Watch Today: Freddie Freeman, Orlando Arcia
Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies | 6:40 p.m. ET on TBS
Player to Target: Orlando Arcia
Let’s start with my favorite MLB player prop to watch on tonight’s slate. Atlanta’s shortstop, Orlando Arcia, has looked exceptional against Philadelphia’s LHP Ranger Suarez (1-2). He owns an OBP of 71.4% with one hit and four walks. This year, Arcia owns an elite 1.442 OPS against left-handed pitching with 13 hits and eight walks.
We like Arcia because he gets on base. However, we’re not backing him to get a hit in this spot. The odds for him to so are -155 (60.8%) at DraftKings. That just isn’t profitable. Instead, because Arcia can get on base and usually bats ninth against left-handed pitching, we’re trusting him to score a run, likely courtesy of Ronald Acuna Jr. or Matt Olson.
I have some more thoughts on how to best incorporate this play into a same-game parlay that you can read here, but I’m perfectly fine with playing this one as a straight bet with odds of +150 (45.5%) at DraftKings Sportsbook. The Braves have owned left-handed pitchers like Suarez this season.
Best MLB Player Prop: Orlando Arcia To Record a Run +120 at DraftKings
Los Angeles Dodgers at Los Angeles Angels | 10:07 p.m. ET on TBS
Player to Target: Freddie Freeman
The Angels will start LHP Reid Detmers (1-5) tonight. His 4.48 ERA and 4.38 xERA don’t inspire a ton of confidence, but he seems to have gotten things together after a slow start to the year. Detmers owns a 3.24 ERA cross three starts and 16.2 innings pitched in June. With the Angels getting a day off after their series against the Royals, we’re backing Detmers and the bullpen to shut down Freddie Freeman.
Freeman, a lefty, has performed extremely well against left-handed pitching this year. He owns 29 hits, 18 runs and 23 RBIs against them in 99 plate appearances. However, this is a big deviation from the norm for Freeman, especially with regard to RBIs. He totaled only 53 hits, 32 runs and 24 RBIs against left-handed pitchers last season in 201 plate appearances.
Let’s fade Freeman on the player prop markets tonight. We can get him to go hitless at odds of +190 (34.5%) at BetMGM, but I’d rather play a different market instead. We can get Freeman to stay under 1.5 hits, runs and RBIs at odds of +105 (48.8%), also at BetMGM. New to BetMGM? First-time users can get first-bet insurance worth up to $1,000!
Best MLB Player Prop: Freddie Freeman Under 1.5 Bases, Runs & RBIs +105 at BetMGM
