With only one MLB game scheduled to appear on national television today, the pickings have gotten quite slim. Whatever — tonight’s battle between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Baltimore Orioles on TBS should be a good watch. I’ve got one MLB player prop pick for today’s televised action, and OddsShopper’s model has identified plenty of other options as well. Without further ado, here are the players to watch and picks to make on the MLB player prop markets today, including Gunnar Henderson.
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Best MLB Player Props to Watch Today: Gunnar Henderson, Michael Grove
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | 7:05 p.m. ET on TBS
Isaiah’s Target: Gunnar Henderson at DraftKings
The Baltimore Orioles will take on the Los Angeles Dodgers and RHP Michael Grove tonight at Camden Yards. Grove has struggled this year, especially on the road. He owns a 6.89 ERA, which, while slightly inflated relative to his 5.09 xERA, ticks up to an atrocious 11.15 ERA on the road. Grove has surrendered an opposing batting average of .427 on the road this season.
Grove, a RHP, has struggled against LHBs throughout his short career, which bodes well for Baltimore’s Gunnar Henderson. When lined up against Grove, LHBs are hitting .345 with 11 extra-base hits and four home runs. Henderson is hitting .257 against RHPs with 29 extra-base hits and 14 home runs this season. Henderson ranks third on the Orioles in expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) at .343, slightly better than his .348 wOBA.
Henderson should also benefit from today’s conditions. Although Oriole Park at Camden Yards is now less friendly to batters than it once was, Henderson has still ripped off 20 extra-base hits and six home runs at his home park and is hitting .260. The stadium still ranks 12th in overall park factors for LHBs. With the wind forecasted to be blowing straight out, Henderson is that much likelier to pick up an extra base.
There’s an interesting disagreement in the market over Henderson’s total bases. While you’ll find the total set to 1.5 at every major book, FanDuel has the over priced at only -115 (53.5%), but you can find it at +105 (48.8%) via DraftKings Sportsbook. Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists Henderson at +102 (49.5%) to record multiple bases. Let’s play this one for a full unit — it’s the best MLB player prop pick to watch this evening.
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Best MLB Player Prop: Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 Total Bases +105 at DraftKings
