Let’s go! Yesterday’s televised props column went a solid 2-0, cashing tickets on both LHP Drew Smyly and Juan Soto. With plenty of baseball action in store on this Fourth of July, including Cardinals-Marlins on ESPN+ and Angels-Padres on TBS, we’ve got lots to get into. I’ve got one MLB player prop pick for today’s televised action and OddsShopper has one, too, so let’s secure the bag. Here are the players to watch and picks to make on the MLB player prop markets today, including Juan Soto.
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Best MLB Player Props to Watch Today: Juan Soto, Jesus Luzardo
St. Louis Cardinals at Miami Marlins | 1:10 p.m. ET on ESPN+
OddsShopper’s Target: Jesus Luzardo at BetMGM
Let’s begin with one of OddsShopper’s top MLB player prop picks to watch for today: LHP Jesus Luzardo. Luzardo takes on a Cardinals lineup that has plenty of sluggers but has underperformed to this point of the year. Luzardo owns a steady 3.53 ERA and 3.54 xERA.
Luzardo has been excellent this year and is averaging 10.4 K/9 and 6.6 per start. His K/9 jumps to 10.6 at home as well. But the books know just how efficient Luzardo has been, and the markets are priced accordingly: his strikeout prop sits at 6.5, and the under is well into the plus money. Yet despite all of Luzardo’s averages, he still has fewer than seven strikeouts in the majority of his starts.
OddsShopper’s market-based model doesn’t really care about those factors, which are already baked into the price. It does care about finding an edge relative to the market, and it projects a fair market price for this prop at +107 (48.3%), meaning the +120 (45.5%) at BetMGM looks like a solid deal.
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Los Angeles Angels at San Diego Padres | 6:40 p.m. ET on TBS
Isaiah’s Target: Juan Soto at DraftKings
What happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object? We’ll find out when Juan Soto takes on RHP Shohei Ohtani. Although Ohtani has been exceptional on the mound this year, as his 3.02 ERA and 3.38 xERA indicate, he hasn’t been perfect. Ohtani has allowed opposite-handed batters to hit .189. He has also allowed opposing batters to hit .200 when he pitches on the road. He has given up 12 extra-base hits to LHBs as well.
Soto, a LHB, has been a monster against opposite-handed pitchers this year. He is hitting .302 against them with an OPS of 1.017. Of his 35 extra-base hits, 29 have come against RHPs. While he may struggle against an elite pitcher like Ohtani, the books have priced his MLB player props accordingly, which makes him a contrarian player to pick for tonight’s action. He sits as low as -160 (61.4%) at DraftKings to get a hit and +135 (42.6%) at FanDuel to record two-plus bases.
Ultimately, although Soto may struggle against Ohtani, he’ll likely get one or two at-bats against whoever relieves him. It’s also not impossible that he gets a hit against Ohtani, either. You won’t be able to buy any lower on Soto’s player props, so let’s lock him in to record just one hit at -160 via DraftKings. You’ll find this prop priced down at -170 (62.9%) at Pinnacle, a sharp book.
Best MLB Player Prop: Juan Soto Over 0.5 Hits -160 at DraftKings
