The Toronto Blue Jays and San Diego Padres will square off on ESPN+ in what could be an exciting offensive battle. I’ve got two MLB player prop picks for today’s televised action, and OddsShopper’s model has identified plenty of other options as well. Without further ado, here are the players to watch and picks to make on the MLB player prop markets today, including Juan Soto.
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Best MLB Player Props to Watch Today: Picks for Juan Soto, Keibert Ruiz
San Diego Padres at Toronto Blue Jays | 7:05 p.m. ET on ESPN+
Isaiah’s Target: Juan Soto at DraftKings
The San Diego Padres will stay on the east coast and take on the Toronto Blue Jays tonight. With the Blue Jays starting an overrated and overperforming RHP Jose Berrios, I want action on San Diego’s bats. Berrios ranks ninth among the 11 eligible Toronto pitchers in xERA. His 3.42 ERA, which ranks among the team’s best, is much lower than his 4.59 xERA, which suggests he has gotten lucky. Despite that solid luck, Berrios has still allowed 58 hits, 23 extra-base hits and seven home runs to LHBs.
Enter Juan Soto. As a LHB, Soto has a leg up against RHP. Across 223 at-bats this season, Soto has 65 hits, 33 extra-base hits and 14 home runs. He owns a 1.006 OPS against RHBs. Although San Diego’s offense hasn’t been as good as expected this year, none of that falls on Soto’s shoulders. Soto leads the team in expected weighted on-base average at .393, which is slightly worse than his actual wOBA of .390. With these teams playing a much hitter-friendlier stadium than San Diego’s Petco Park, expect Soto to show out. Over 167 at-bats on the road, he has racked up 50 hits, 23 extra-base hits and 11 home runs, good for a .992 OPS.
We can get Soto to record two-plus bases at odds of +125 (44.4%) via DraftKings Sportsbook. This won’t be his first matchup against Berrios — Soto has one home run, two walks and one strikeout across six plate appearances against him. You’ll find this priced at +125 via Pinnacle, a sharp book, and only +105 (48.8%) via FanDuel. The public books should drop this line closer to FanDuel’s price as tonight’s first pitch approaches, so lock this one in before the market adjusts!
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Best MLB Player Prop: Juan Soto Over 1.5 Total Bases +125 at DraftKings
Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationals | 8:05 p.m. ET on MLB TV
Isaiah’s Target: Keibert Ruiz at DraftKings
Today’s free game of the day on MLB TV may not jump off the page — who cares about the Chicago Cubs beating up on the bottom-dwelling Washington Nationals? — but it’s still a respectable source of value on the MLB player prop betting markets. The Cubs manhandled the Nationals by scoring a 14-run win on Tuesday, and after RHP Trevor Williams was originally projected as tonight’s starter for Washington, the books have pulled his props as we await an official announcement from Washington.
We’ll stay away from Chicago’s bats as Washington figures out who will take the mound. Instead, we’ll target switch-hitting catcher Keibert Ruiz against Chicago’s RHP Kyle Hendricks. Ruiz leads Washington’s atrocious roster in xwOBA at .344, which far outpaces his .301 wOBA, so positive regression looms for the 24-year-old catcher. It helps that Ruiz has racked up 47 hits, 13 extra-base hits and 10 home runs in 212 at-bats against RHPs so far this year. Ruiz was even more efficient against RHPs last year with 77 hits, 26 extra-base hits and seven home runs in 301 at-bats.
There is some market disagreement as to how to price Ruiz’s total bases prop. While you’ll find the total set to 1.5 at every major book, FanDuel has the over priced at only +110 (47.6%), but you can find it at +135 (42.6%) via DraftKings Sportsbook. Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists Ruiz at +134 (42.7%) to record multiple bases. Let’s play this one for enough to profit a full unit — it’s one of the best MLB player prop picks to watch this evening.
Best MLB Player Prop: Keibert Ruiz Over 1.5 Total Bases +135 at DraftKings
