We don’t have many MLB games to watch today, but we do have some. ESPN+ will broadcast Padres-Rangers late, and MLB TV will show Giants-Red Sox, the slate’s final game, for free. I have two MLB player prop picks to watch today, and OddsShopper’s model has identified plenty of other options as well. You can also find today’s MLB home run picks here. Without further ado, here are the players to watch and picks to make on the MLB player prop markets today, including Juan Soto.
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Best MLB Player Props to Watch Today: Picks for Juan Soto, Mike Yastrzemski
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers | 9:40 p.m. ET on ESPN+
Isaiah’s Target: Juan Soto at BetMGM
The San Diego Padres will host the Texas Rangers in Petco Park tonight, and there are two MLB player prop lines I like in this matchup. Insider Access members will get access to both plays, but the one I’m the most excited about is a Juan Soto player prop. Let’s back him to record two or more bases against RHP Dane Dunning, who owns better stats than he should this deep in the year. Dunning’s 3.18 ERA is far better than his 4.95 xERA, and the wheels will have to come off at some point.
Dunning has struggled against LHBs like Soto, and Soto has thrived against RHPs like Dunning. Heading into Friday night’s battle, Dunning had surrendered 47 hits, 13 extra-base hits and six home runs to LHBs this season alone, good for a .772 OPS. Meanwhile, Soto has racked up 69 hits, 36 extra-base hits and 16 home runs against RHPs this year. He also leads an otherwise disappointing Padres team in expected weighted on-base average at .401, which ranks eighth overall.
We can buy Soto to record two-plus bases at odds of +130 (43.5%) via BetMGM. You won’t find a better number elsewhere. Pinnacle, a sharp book, has this set to +128 (43.8%), DraftKings has it at +125 (44.4%) and FanDuel at +120 (45.5%). This is a minor market-based edge, but we’re getting enough of a projections-based one to warrant locking in this prop via BetMGM. Don’t be surprised if this number gets bid off the board before the first pitch.
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Best MLB Player Prop: Juan Soto Over 1.5 Total Bases +130 at BetMGM
San Francisco Giants vs. Boston Red Sox | 10:15 p.m. ET on MLB TV
Isaiah’s Target: Mike Yastrzemski at FanDuel
The odds have just gotten too long for Mike Yastrzemski to record a single hit. Although most of his offensive production came earlier in the year, Yaz still has 58 hits in 74 games. He also has 30 hits in 34 home appearances, only 30 of which were starts. Yaz has been a split-heavy batter this year and is hitting .278 at home but only .199 on the road. He also has 50 hits in 53 games against starting RHPs.
The Red Sox will start a solid option in RHP Kutter Crawford. Crawford has fared well against LHBs and on the road but has struggled during the summer. He owned a 3.48 ERA in early June that has since ballooned to 4.04. Although his 4.04 ERA is worse than his 3.73 xERA, he is still a decent pitcher to target for a single, well, single. Crawford is averaging 0.78 hits allowed per inning pitched over his last four starts.
We’re also getting an edge on the market, albeit minor. Pinnacle has Yaz at odds of -183 (64.7%) to get a hit, which is obviously beating the -170 (62.9%) at DraftKings. No other book has a number quite this short. Let’s trust home-game Yaz to show up tonight — he has racked up three hits across two home starts since returning from a multi-week road trip. Wagering enough to secure a half-unit return should prove profitable.
Best MLB Player Prop: Mike Yastrzemski Over 0.5 Hits -170 at DraftKings
