After a good-but-not-spectacular week, the props to watch column is back for Monday’s action. We don’t have much to choose from tonight since most teams travel on Monday, but we’ve at least got Brewers-Mets on ESPN+. Anyway, I’ve got an angle, OddsShopper’s market-based model has an angle, so it’s time to secure the bag. Here are the players to watch on the MLB player prop markets today, including Justin Verlander, who headlines our picks.
Readers looking for all the best MLB bets, picks and predictions throughout the season should check out OddsShopper’s articles and market-based models, including our Parlay Builder!
Best MLB Player Props to Watch Today: Justin Verlander, Rowdy Tellez
Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets | 7:10 p.m. ET on ESPN+
Isaiah’s Target: Justin Verlander
OddsShopper’s Model Target: Rowdy Tellez
Let’s open with my favorite MLB player prop to watch today: we’re trusting RHP Justin Verlander (2-4) to put together a strong outing. Although it hasn’t been the best few months for last year’s AL Cy Young winner, Verlander has gotten unlucky. His 4.50 ERA slots in well above his 3.88 xERA. His K/9 has dipped to 7.6, well below his career average (9.1) and what he put together just last year (9.5).
Fortunately, tonight’s matchup with the Milwaukee Brewers is an excellent get-right spot. Verlander will take the mound at Citi Field, where he has recorded a fantastic 3.24 ERA with 7.9 K/9. Citi Field ranks eighth in park factors for strikeouts. Further, the Brewers rank a dreadful 27th in strikeouts taken per game (9.5). Their star slugger, Christian Yelich, is 0-for-6 against Verlander with two strikeouts.
We can lock in Verlander to record at least seven strikeouts at odds of +105 (48.8%) via BetMGM. While that number is accurate based on his production this year, the numbers suggest luck has more to do with Verlander’s early-season struggles than anything else. Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists this prop at odds of -113 (53%). New to BetMGM? You can get first-bet insurance worth up to $1,000 — see more details and disclaimers in the widget above.
Best MLB Player Prop: Justin Verlander Over 6.5 Strikeouts +105 at BetMGM
Let’s turn to what OddsShopper’s model likes tonight. Like me, it’s also fading the Milwaukee Brewers. The model wants action on Rowdy Tellez, one of Milwaukee’s left-handed batters, to stay under on the RBI markets. Tellez is 0-for-3 with three strikeouts against Verlander for his career. Although he has racked up 32 RBIs this year, those came in only 22 of his 71 games (30.9%).
The books just aren’t stacking the juice on the under for Tellez’s RBIs sufficiently. Using the market consensus and adjusting for hold, the model thinks a fair price is -238 (70.4%). However, you can buy the under at only -225 (69.2%) via DraftKings — let’s get action on that number in before it disappears. For more +EV plays and mispriced and high-value props, check out OddsShopper Premium.
Best MLB Player Prop: Rowdy Tellez Under 0.5 RBIs -225 at DraftKings
