How about a 3-0 sweep for last night’s props to watch column? That brings us to 6-1 on the week, and as we head into Saturday, I think we can keep this going. Let’s dive into the top MLB player prop picks, two from me, and two from OddsShopper’s market-based model, for the games you can watch across the country today: Angels-Royals, Yankees-Red Sox, Rays-Padres and Guardians-Diamondbacks. Without further ado, here are the players we’re picking on the MLB player prop markets, including Manny Machado.
Readers looking for all the best MLB bets, picks and predictions throughout the season should check out OddsShopper’s articles and market-based models, including our Parlay Builder!
Best MLB Player Props to Watch Today: Manny Machado, Masataka Yoshida
Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Angels | 4:10 p.m. ET on FS1
The early bird gets the worm. Although the Royals-Angels game isn’t the first one on Saturday’s slate, the mid-afternoon game will wrap up before the electric late-game card gets underway. If you’re reading this column early, you can still get in on OddsShopper’s best MLB bet of the day: RHP Griffin Canning (5-2) under 5.5 strikeouts.
Canning has been serviceable for the Angels this year. His 4.56 ERA and 4.25 xERA are both solid. However, Canning isn’t the most effective pitcher when it comes to striking batters out. He is averaging a career-low 8.4 K/9. Canning has made it through six innings or more in only three of his five starts. He has six or more strikeouts in just three games as well.
But OddsShopper’s market-based model is just that — market-based — so all of the reasoning behind this play stems from off-the-diamond factors. By indexing the industry’s sharpest sportsbooks, the model produces a fair price, which is -209 (67.6%) — but we can buy the -160 (61.5%) at BetMGM. New to BetMGM? First-time users can get first-bet insurance worth up to $1,000!
Best MLB Player Prop: Griffin Canning Under 5.5 Strikeouts -160 at BetMGM
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox | 7:15 p.m. ET on FOX
Now it’s time for one of my props. I already have action on one member of the Boston Red Sox, outfielder Masataka Yoshida, to hit a home run. But although Fenway Park ranks first in park factors for left-handed hitters like Yoshida, it ranks only 17th for home runs. Let’s get some exposure on Yoshida to record two-plus bases just in case.
Yoshida will take on New York’s RHP Clark Schmidt (2-6) tonight. His splits against right-handed pitchers are noteworthy — Yoshida’s OPS improves from .862 to .899 against them, and he owns six home runs and 21 extra-base hits through that sample. Yoshida also excels at home and owns 16 extra-base hits and four home runs in Fenway Park.
Some books are more aware of how good this spot is for Yoshida than others. FanDuel is charging +105 (48.8%) for Yoshida to record over 1.5 bases, but we can find the same prop priced at +130 (43.5%) via DraftKings Sportsbook!
Best MLB Player Prop: Masataka Yoshida Over 1.5 Bases +130 at DraftKings
Tampa Bay Rays vs. San Diego Padres | 7:15 p.m. ET on FOX
I’ve got another pick for today. The Tampa Bay Rays will take on the struggling San Diego Padres, and they’ll trot out RHP Zach Eflin (8-2) tonight. Eflin’s 3.28 ERA is impressive, but his 2.90 xERA is even more so. The San Diego batting order will have a tough time tonight.
We’re going to fade third baseman Manny Machado in this spot. Machado has looked thoroughly unimpressive this year and owns a batting average of only .248, putting him on pace for his worst season ever in the metric. Worse, that average dips to .195 against right-handed pitchers.
Eflin has faced Machado in 14 at-bats, and those haven’t gone well for the right-handed slugger. Machado owns three hits and three strikeouts with a batting average of .214 against Eflin. Machado has gone hitless in 20 of his 53 appearances this year, or 37.7%, but we can buy him at odds of +190 (34.5%) to do so again via BetMGM.
Best MLB Player Prop: Manny Machado Under 0.5 Hits +190 at BetMGM
Cleveland Guardians vs. Arizona Diamondbacks | 10:10 p.m. ET on FS1
Let’s wrap this column up with a model play for tonight’s late-slate game. The Cleveland Guardians will take on the Arizona Diamondbacks out west this evening for the second contest of a three-game series. Arizona took the first by four runs and will start LHP Tommy Henry (3-1) tonight.
The 25-year-old Henry hasn’t established himself quite yet, but his 4.86 ERA and 4.64 xERA are solid enough to justify fading Cleveland’s offense in a few spots. One such spot? The player prop markets for outfielder Myles Straw.
Straw usually finds himself hitting late in Cleveland’s batting order. Of his 223 at-bats this year, 127 of them have come as the ninth hitter. That can make it difficult to get runs across the plate — Straw owns just 11 RBIs on the season. A fair price for him to go without an RBI tonight is -286 (74.1%), but we can buy the -250 (71.4%) at BetMGM.
Best MLB Player Prop: Myles Straw Under 0.5 RBIs -250 at BetMGM
