We’ve got a tiny MLB slate on tap tonight. Two of those games will appear on national streaming services, Mets-Nationals and White Sox-Guardians. I have one MLB player prop pick to watch today, and OddsShopper’s model has identified plenty of other options as well, including one featured below. You can also find today’s MLB home run picks here. Without further ado, here are the players to watch and picks to make on the MLB player prop markets today, including Kodai Senga.
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Best MLB Player Props to Watch Today: Kodai Senga, Dylan Cease
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals | 7:10 p.m. ET on ESPN+
Isaiah’s Target: Kodai Senga at BetMGM
The New York Mets will host the Washington Nationals tonight at Citi Field. RHP Kodai Senga will take the mound for New York. He had a tough outing against the Boston Red Sox last time, lasting only 3.1 innings and striking out three batters, but he had come into that game with six-straight games with six-plus strikeouts. He struck out seven batters in his previous start against Washington.
The books have set the line for Senga’s strikeouts at 5.5, which is fair, but you’ll find the over priced differently across the books. Pinnacle has the over set to -156 (60.9%), a much steeper price than the -175 (63.6%) at DraftKings, but still a worse deal than the -145 (59.2%) at BetMGM. The Nationals have been a tough team to strike out this year, taking only 7.02 strikeouts per game, but Senga is a good value at the current market price.
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Best MLB Player Prop: Kodai Senga Over 5.5 Strikeouts -145 at BetMGM
Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians | 8:10 p.m. ET on ESPN+
OddsShopper’s Target: Dylan Cease at FanDuel
The Chicago White Sox and Cleveland Guardians will do battle late this evening, and OddsShopper recommends fading Chicago’s starter, RHP Dylan Cease, in this spot — at least in the strikeout column. Cease has gone for six-plus strikeouts in his last three starts but may struggle to do so tonight. He racked up only three strikeouts in two separate starts against the Guardians earlier in the year.
This is primarily a market-based edge: Pinnacle, a sharp book, has the under priced at -115 (53.5%), but we’ll find it at only -102 (50.5%) via FanDuel. Other books like DraftKings have the same price as Pinnacle, with BetMGM listing it at a still-worse -105 (51.2%). There isn’t a ton of edge here, so don’t over-commit your bankroll on today’s small slate, but there is enough to warrant a wager.
Best MLB Player Prop: Dylan Cease Under 5.5 Strikeouts -102 at FanDuel
