Let’s go! We hit on our only MLB player prop last night, a -150 ticket on Christian Walker. The odds weren’t great, but those who either boosted the line or added Walker to hit a home run made a much more impressive profit. I have two MLB player prop picks to watch today, and OddsShopper’s model has identified plenty of other options as well. You can also find today’s MLB home run picks here. Here are the players to watch and picks to make on the MLB player prop markets today, including Matt Olson, for Yankees-Braves and Brewers-Dodgers.
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Best MLB Player Props to Watch Today: Picks for Matt Olson, Freddie Freeman
Yankees-Braves Player Prop
Watch: TBS
When: 7:20 p.m. ET
Where: Truist Park, Atlanta
Who: Matt Olson at DraftKings
The New York Yankees aren’t good this year. Although their payroll always suggests they should be a contender, their players just haven’t put it together on the field. That’s especially true of RHP Luis Severino, who, after returning halfway through the year, owns a dismal 8.06 ERA and a similarly awful 6.75 xERA. His .606 SLG allowed and .531 xSLG allowed, the latter of which is in the second percentile, make him a fantastic pitcher to fade on most slates. Today is no exception, especially with him taking on the red-hot Atlanta Braves. Severino has fared worst against LHBs, as he has allowed them to hit .373 with a .701 SLG, coughing up 24 extra-base hits and 10 home runs to them in 134 at-bats.
The Braves are pretty top-heavy when it comes to left-handed power. Matt Olson, who now leads the MLB in home runs with 43, is their best LHB by far. Although Olson only ranks third on the roster in expected weighted on-base average, or xwOBA, at .404, that’s still in the 97th percentile. His dominant .621 SLG is impressive, and even his slightly worse .588 xSLG is in the 98th percentile. Olson also leads the MLB in both average and maximum exit velocity. You can add him to your Dinger Tuesday card for odds of just +250 (28.6%) via FanDuel Sportsbook, which, while not the most profitable number, still is +EV in this spot.
But despite Olson’s absolute dominance and Severino’s struggles, the books are treating today like every other day for Olson. That’s a huge mistake. Olson recorded 277 total bases across 118 games, meaning he averages 2.34 total bases per game. Yet we can buy him in a smash spot at odds of just -115 (53.5%) via DraftKings Sportsbook just to record two bases tonight. Oh, and if you haven’t used your 50% profit boost today, you can gas this one up to +130 (43.5%) for up to $25. Let’s make the books pay for underrating Matt Olson on the player prop markets today.
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Best MLB Player Prop: Matt Olson Over 1.5 Total Bases -115 for 0.75 Units at DraftKings
Brewers-Dodgers Player Prop
Watch: ESPN+ & Hulu
When: 10:10 p.m. ET
Where: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles
Who: Freddie Freeman at BetMGM
Do you know who else is averaging exactly 2.34 total bases per game? That’s right, it’s the man the Atlanta Braves needed Matt Olson to replace: Freddie Freeman. Although Freeman draws a slightly worse matchup against the Milwaukee Brewers and RHP Adrian Hauser, Freeman’s .418 xwOBA and .582 xSLG both rank in the 98th percentile. With 11 mph winds blowing out through right field, it might not be a bad idea to mix Freeman into your Dinger Tuesday card for odds of +430 (18.8%) via FanDuel.
Hauser isn’t as much of a fade as Severino, but he is a fade in this specific matchup against Freeman. The veteran pitcher has fared well against most LHBs but has struggled a bit with power — although he has allowed them to hit only .261, lower than the .311 he has allowed to RHBs, he has also given up a .440 SLG to them, higher than the .406 he has allowed to RHBs. Hauser’s 4.38 ERA and 4.44 xERA are both solid, as are his .420 SLG allowed and .411 xSLG allowed, but solid play by Hauser hasn’t stopped Freeman before — he owns two hits and one home run in six at-bats against him.
Freeman has been in a bit of a cold spell lately, so we’re getting him at a surprising (and off-market, so act quickly) discount. You’ll find Freeman priced at -120 (54.6%) or shorter to record multiple bases at most books, but BetMGM is hanging a -110 (52.4%). Freeman has been picking up bases at far too high of a clip to warrant a number this long, so let’s take advantage of it before BetMGM adjusts. You’ll find this MLB player prop to watch priced at exactly -110 (52.4%) via Pinnacle, a sharp book, which means we’re buying this at minimal juice.
Best MLB Player Prop: Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 Total Bases -110 for 0.75 Units at BetMGM
