As August rolls on, so does the MLB. The playoffs are fast approaching, and with the trade deadline passed, we need not sweat out pre-game roster transactions. I have two MLB player prop picks to watch today, and OddsShopper’s model has identified plenty of other options as well. You can also find today’s MLB home run picks here. Without further ado, here are the players to watch and picks to make on the MLB player prop markets today, including Matt Olson.
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Best MLB Player Props to Watch Today: Picks for Matt Olson, Luis Robert Jr.
Atlanta Braves at Pittsburgh Pirates | 7:05 p.m. ET on ESPN+
Isaiah’s Target: Matt Olson at BetMGM
This game may not happen as scheduled because of inclement weather, but if it does, you’ll be able to tune in via ESPN+. The Braves begin a three-game series at Pittsburgh this evening, and they’ll take on RHP Osvaldo Bido in the first game — again, if everything goes as scheduled. Bido owns a 5.18 ERA and 4.65 xERA across 33 innings pitched. He has fared miserably against LHBs, allowing them to hit .308 with five extra-base hits and two home runs in just 65 at-bats.
Few batters are hotter than Matt Olson right now, especially against RHPs. Olson owns an elite .398 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA), which, while only good for third on the Braves, ranks in the 97th percentile. Olson is hitting .274 against RHPs with 49 extra-base hits and 33 home runs, good for an impressive 1.038 OPS. While Pittsburgh’s PNC Park isn’t known as a hitter’s stadium, it ranks eighth in park factors for LHBs.
While there is a chance this bet will void due to the weather, bettors eager to sweat out a baseball bet they can watch tonight don’t have a ton of options. Olson is the best one on the board for this game due to his absurd efficiency against RHPs. We can buy Olson to record over 1.5 bases at odds of -110 (52.4%) via BetMGM, which sounds steep, but it’s far better than the -130 (56.5%) via FanDuel Sportsbook.
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Best MLB Player Prop: Matt Olson Over 1.5 Total Bases -110 for 0.55 Units at BetMGM
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees | 8:10 p.m. ET on MLB TV
Isaiah’s Target: Luis Robert Jr. at BetMGM
The Chicago White Sox will have to contend with RHP Gerrit Cole tonight, but for several of their players, that hasn’t been a big deal. Current members of the White Sox are hitting a combined .280 with a .815 OPS. Luis Robert Jr. is one of several Chicago players to have fared well against Cole to date — he has two singles in three plate appearances against him. Cole’s 2.64 ERA is scary, but his 3.60 xERA is much less so.
Robert has been impressive this season, and his performance against RHPs should make you that much more confident in him. His .355 xwOBA leads Chicago and ranks in the 81st percentile. Robert is hitting .258 against RHPs with 47 extra-base hits and 22 home runs. His .882 OPS ticks up to .917 when he plays at home, which should come as no surprise, as Guaranteed Rate Field ranks sixth in overall park factors to RHBs.
We can buy Robert to record over 1.5 bases at +145 (40.8%) via BetMGM. While that’s close to a fair price for today’s matchup against Cole, the market is a touch too biased toward the star pitcher. Fading Cole by backing Robert should prove sharp at this price point, making it one of my favorite MLB bets to watch tonight. You can sweat this one out live via MLB TV for free.
Best MLB Player Prop: Luis Robert Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases +145 for 0.45 Units at BetMGM
