We’ve got an exciting slate of baseball on tap this evening. Three nationally televised games — Nationals-Phillies, Brewers-Pirates and D-backs-Angels adorn the card. I’ve got two MLB player prop picks today, OddsShopper’s market-based model has one too, so let’s secure the bag. Here are the players to watch and picks to make on the MLB player prop markets today, including Mike Trout.
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Best MLB Player Props to Watch Today: Mike Trout, Rowdy Tellez
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals | 6:05 p.m. ET on ESPN+
OddsShopper’s Model Target: Cristopher Sanchez at SuperBook
Let’s start with one of OddsShopper’s top MLB player prop targets for today: LHP Cristopher Sanchez (0-1). Sanchez has made three starts this season, which are also his only appearances in the majors this year. He has compiled 14 strikeouts through 13.1 innings pitched. The sportsbooks have set the total for his strikeout prop to 4.5, but OddsShopper finds serious value on the under.
Sanchez takes on a Washington Nationals lineup that, despite its flaws, takes the fewest strikeouts per game (7.03). The Nationals have recorded only 183 strikeouts in 894 at-bats against LHPs like Sanchez, good for a rate of 20.5%. As a result of market-based factors and Washington’s efficiency, OddsShopper would price the under at -164 (62.1%), but we can buy it at -150 (60%) via SuperBook.
Best MLB Player Prop: Cristopher Sanchez Under 4.5 Strikeouts -150 at SuperBook
Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates | 7:05 p.m. ET on ESPN+
Isaiah’s Target: Rowdy Tellez at FanDuel
Although Pittsburgh RHP Osvaldo Bido (0-1) has looked solid in the majors thus far, as his 3.45 ERA and .676 OPS allowed indicate, regression is coming. He has given up just two extra-base hits across 15.2 major-league innings pitched, good for 13.1%. However, he has given up 21 extra-base hits across 71 innings pitched in the minors, good for 29.6%. Of those 21 extra-base hits allowed, 11 (52.4%) were hit by left-handed batters in only 44.9% of the plate appearances.
Let’s get action on one of Milwaukee’s best left-handed sluggers tonight, Rowdy Tellez. In 209 at-bats against RHPs this year, Tellez has 47 hits and 19 extra-base hits. He owns a .722 OPS against RHPs. Last year, Tellez compiled 92 hits and 52 extra-base hits against RHPs with a .801 OPS. He also recorded nine hits and four extra-base hits in Pittsburgh’s PNC Park with a .773 OPS. PNC Park ranks ninth in park factors for doubles allowed LHBs and eighth for singles. Let’s lock in the over 1.5 bases at +115 (46.5%) via FanDuel Sportsbook.
Best MLB Player Prop: Rowdy Tellez Over 1.5 Bases +115 at FanDuel
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks | 9:40 p.m. ET on Apple TV+
Isaiah’s Target: Mike Trout at DraftKings
Rare is the day that Mike Trout sits in the plus money to record more than 1.5 bases, but that’s where you’ll find him currently — at least at a few books. FanDuel lists him at -110 (52.4%), but we can get him all the way up at +125 (44.4%) at DraftKings — despite Pinnacle, a sharp book, listing Trout at only +121 (45.3%). He draws a favorable matchup against an inexperienced pitcher and will play in his hitter-friendly home park. Angel Stadium ranks 12th in park factors for right-handed sluggers like Trout.
Trout will line up against Arizona’s LHP Tommy Henry (4-1). Henry is a solid pitcher, and Trout has historically fared better against RHPs than LHPs, but a few of Henry’s numbers jump out as profoundly unsustainable. Last year, Henry ranked in the 13th percentile for exit velocity and in the 36th percentile for hard hit percentage. This year, he ranks in the 88th and 91st percentile in those metrics, respectively. Henry has still managed to allow 24 extra-base hits in 62.2 innings pitched this year but more loom on the horizon. Let’s trust Trout to get the job done with our final MLB player prop pick to watch today.
Best MLB Player Prop: Mike Trout Over 1.5 Bases +125 at DraftKings
