With only one MLB game appearing on national television tonight, I’m still coming through with two player props. OddsShopper’s model has identified plenty of other options as well, and you can also find today’s MLB home run picks here. Here are the players to watch and picks to make on the MLB player prop markets today, including Andrew Benintendi, for Mariners-White Sox and, as a bonus, Reds-Angels.
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Best MLB Player Props to Watch Today: Picks for Andrew Benintendi, Shohei Ohtani
Mariners-White Sox Player Prop
Watch: FS1
When: 7:10 p.m. ET
Where: Guaranteed Rate Field, Chicago
Who: Andrew Benintendi at FanDuel
We have one game reaching national audiences tonight, and it’s quite the battle — the Seattle Mariners, who are still contending for the AL West crown, will take on the Chicago White Sox, who are very much not contending for anything this year. Yet we’re backing one member of the White Sox in this spot because I believe RHP Luis Castillo is overrated, and we’re getting a slightly off-market number via FanDuel. You’ll find Andrew Benintendi priced at +135 (42.6%) to record multiple bases at DraftKings and +137 (42.2%) at Pinnacle, a sharp book, so the +155 (39.2%) via FanDuel Sportsbook stands out.
Castillo has been good but not great this year, and left-handed power has been his biggest problem. He owns a 3.23 ERA but only a 3.81 xERA. Likewise, his .396 SLG allowed is a touch better than his .416 xSLG. Castillo is still a top-half player by xERA, but his xSLG is only in the 36th percentile. Home runs, especially those hit by LHBs, explain Castillo’s near-career-worst performance by xSLG. The veteran RHP has coughed up a .449 SLG to LHB with 16 home runs allowed. He leads the Mariners in both actual (23) and expected (22.9) home runs allowed as well.
Benintendi isn’t the best bat, but he is good enough to take advantage of Castillo in this spot. His .365 xSLG leaves plenty of room for improvement but his .274 xBA ranks in the 83rd percentile. Benintendi doesn’t often get the ball over the fence, but he is slashing .277/.345/.702 against RHPs with 23 extra-base hits. I wouldn’t pounce on this at the standard market price, but because we’re getting the +155 (39.2%) at FanDuel, I don’t mind hoping for either a rare double or two-hit game from Benintendi with this MLB player prop pick to watch today.
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Best Mariners-White Sox MLB Player Prop: Andrew Benintendi Over 1.5 Total Bases +155 at FanDuel
Reds-Angels Player Prop
Watch: N/A
When: 9:40 p.m. ET
Where: Angel Stadium, Los Angeles
Who: Shohei Ohtani at DraftKings
Alright, so this game isn’t on national television, but I can’t just leave you with a single MLB player prop for tonight’s slate. Instead, let’s turn to one of the late games: Reds-Angels. Cincinnati will start RHP Graham Ashcraft, whose 5.05 xERA and .423 xSLG are both in the 33rd percentile or worse. Ashcraft has put together some solid outings lately and owns a 2.43 ERA over his last five starts, but, aside from the Los Angeles Dodgers, he hasn’t been taking on the best offenses. Let’s target the best player in baseball, Shohei Ohtani, in this matchup.
Ohtani is almost always a sharp bet to record multiple total bases, which his staggering offensive stats underscore. Ohtani’s .647 xSLG is comfortably in the 99th percentile. His average exit velocity, xwOBA, xBA and barrel rate are all in that range as well. While walks, especially of the intentional variety, can limit Ohtani’s ability to record multiple total bases, his splits against RHPs are damning — he owns a .322 BA and .699 SLG when facing them. Further, Ashcraft is a top 50 player in walks per nine at just 3.4, and he walks LHBs at a lower rate than RHBs. Ashcraft has been solid against LHBs this year, but that won’t be enough for him to stop Ohtani.
We can buy Ohtani to record multiple bases at odds of +115 (46.5%) via DraftKings Sportsbook. That’s a slightly better price than the +114 (46.7%) at Pinnacle and a much better one than the -135 (57.5%) at FanDuel, especially since we can use a 50% MLB profit boost to get this up to +172 (36.8%). Expect Ohtani to get plenty of hittable balls from Ashcraft and whichever relievers the Reds tap to replace him late on Monday night.
Best Reds-Angels MLB Player Prop: Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 Total Bases +115 at DraftKings
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