Let’s go! — we cashed two of three MLB player props yesterday, including a +120 ticket on Randy Arozarena and a -105 ticket on Shohei Ohtani. I’ve got two more player props for tonight’s slate, and OddsShopper’s model has identified plenty of other options as well. You can also find today’s MLB home run picks here. Here are the players to watch and picks to make on the MLB player prop markets today, including Francisco Lindor, for Tigers-Guardians and Mets-Cardinals.
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Best MLB Player Props to Watch Today: Picks for Francisco Lindor, Riley Greene
Tigers-Guardians Player Prop
Watch: FOX
When: 7:15 p.m. ET
Where: Progressive Field, Cleveland
Who: Riley Greene at DraftKings
Everyone is freaking out about Spencer Torkelson’s ridiculous hot streak, but I want some exposure to a different Tigers bat who has also looked excellent of late. Riley Greene is hitting .340 with a .600 SLG over the last 30 days. While those numbers aren’t sustainable, Greene’s .523 xSLG, which ranks in the 92nd percentile, suggests they’re not all that far off from where they should be. But unlike Torkelson, who owns odds of -130 (56.5%) to record multiple bases, we can back Greene to do so at odds of +105 (48.8%) via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Greene draws a matchup with RHP Xzavion Curry, and while Curry has fared well against LHBs, Greene has fared better against RHPs. Curry’s .288 SLG allowed to LHBs is impressive, but it’s probably not sustainable — he allowed a .528 SLG to LHBs in the minors last season. Further, his 3.39 ERA is much better than his 5.15 xERA, and the same is true for his .407 SLG allowed relative to his .483 xSLG allowed. Meanwhile, Greene has owned RHPs for 27 extra-base hits and 11 home runs across 246 at-bats, good for a .524 SLG.
Unfortunately, there is a pretty high chance this game gets rained out — but if it doesn’t, the weather will work to Greene’s benefit. The forecast calls for 14 mph winds blowing out through right field, which should give a boost to any LHB who takes the plate at Progressive Field tonight. The near-100% chance of rain at 7 p.m., when this game is scheduled to start, likely means we’re at least dealing with a delay, but there could be an opening for some action around 9:30 p.m. once the chance of rain dips under 70%.
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Best Tigers-Guardians MLB Player Prop: Riley Greene Over 1.5 Total Bases +105 at DraftKings
Mets-Cardinals Player Prop
Watch: FOX
When: 7:15 p.m. ET
Where: Busch Stadium, St. Louis
Who: Francisco Lindor at DraftKings
I touted Francisco Lindor as one of my top home run picks, and I’m sticking with him for my top MLB player prop pick to watch in today’s Mets-Cardinals game. We’re locking in some action on Lindor because he’ll take on RHP Adam Wainwright, who has looked every part of his 41 years on the mound this season. Wainwright owns an 8.78 ERA and a 7.79 xERA along with a .618 SLG allowed and a .577 xSLG allowed. He ranks in the first percentile in both xERA and xSLG. While there’s a chance Lindor only gets two at-bats against Wainwright, those are still two very valuable at-bats. It also helps that the Cardinals rank 20th in bullpen ERA at 4.41.
Both Lindor’s overall stats and Wainwright’s splits seal the deal on this MLB player prop to watch for me. Lindor is one of the best bats on the Mets and owns a .352 xwOBA and a .467 xSLG, both of which rank at or above the 78th percentile. Lindor also has 50 extra-base hits to his name on the year. Meanwhile, Wainwright can’t stop LHBs, so a switch-hitter like Lindor is a great player to target. The veteran pitcher has coughed up 23 extra-base hits to LHBs across 129 at-bats, good for a .705 SLG.
The Cardinals probably need to pull the plug on Wainwright sooner rather than later. His recent games have been especially ugly: he owns a 33.75 ERA in August across two starts and four innings pitched. It’s not like he was lined up against the Atlanta Braves and Texas Rangers for those games — those games actually came against the Colorado Rockies and Kansas City Royals. Although we have to pay up to buy Lindor to record multiple bases, the -120 (54.6%) at DraftKings is a reasonable price, and we can boost it up to +130 (43.5%) for the first $25.
Best Mets-Cardinals MLB Player Prop: Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 Total Bases +120 at DraftKings
