Yesterday’s MLB player prop column cashed a +155 ticket on Andrew Benintendi, so let’s roll that momentum forward into tonight’s slate. OddsShopper’s model has identified plenty of other options as well, and you can also find today’s MLB home run picks here. Here are the players to watch and picks to make on the MLB player prop markets today, including Kyle Tucker, for Red Sox-Astros, and, as a bonus, Reds-Angels.
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Best MLB Player Props to Watch Today: Picks for Kyle Tucker, Shohei Ohtani
Red Sox-Astros Player Prop
Watch: TBS
When: 8:10 p.m. ET
Where: Minute Maid Park, Houston
Who: Kyle Tucker at DraftKings
The Houston Astros and Boston Red Sox will square off on TBS tonight, with RHP Justin Verlander on the hill for the home team and RHP Tanner Houck on the hill for the visitors. Houck is making his return to the mound after suffering a facial fracture against the New York Yankees in mid-June. First games back can often prove difficult, and this Astros lineup won’t go down easy. Houck owns a concerning 5.05 ERA but a solid 3.93 xERA this year. He also owns a .387 xSLG, rendering him a slightly above-average pitcher in both expected metrics.
We’re fading Houck despite his success in his rehab starts because of his splits. Houck coughed up just five hits and two earned runs across 8.2 innings pitched, good for a 2.07 ERA. However, Houck has allowed opposing LHBs to record a .262 BA with a .500 SLG, coughing up 15 extra-base hits across just 130 at-bats. This bodes well for LHB Kyle Tucker, whose .303 xBA and .540 xSLG rank in the 94th percentile or higher. Tucker has fared worse against RHPs than LHPs this year, but he still owns a .275 BA and .474 SLG against RHPs.
We can buy Tucker to record multiple bases at odds of +120 (45.5%) via DraftKings Sportsbook. He has been a bit cold since returning from an illness, with just one base to his name over two outings and four at-bats, but he still owns a .317 BA and .707 SLG over the last 15 days. Tucker is averaging roughly 1.9 total bases per game, and while the mean certainly skews higher than the median, he finds himself in a good spot against a just-returning pitcher. Let’s trust him to get the job done at a better number than the +119 (45.7%) at Pinnacle, a sharp book, and the -110 (52.4%) at FanDuel.
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Best Red Sox-Astros MLB Player Prop: Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 Total Bases +120 at DraftKings
Reds-Angels Player Prop
Watch: N/A
When: 9:40 p.m. ET
Where: Angel Stadium, Los Angeles
Who: Shohei Ohtani at DraftKings
I’m pulling the same fast one I pulled yesterday. With only one game reaching national audiences, and with no MLB TV Free Game of the Day, I can either give you just one player prop or an extra player prop you just can’t watch. I choose the latter, and it’s going to be the same one I touted yesterday — fortunately for me, the game just happened to get delayed. Let’s get some action on Shohei Ohtani in Reds-Angels. Cincinnati will start RHP Graham Ashcraft, whose 5.05 xERA and .423 xSLG are both in the 33rd percentile or worse. Ashcraft has put together some solid outings lately and owns a 2.43 ERA over his last five starts, but, aside from the Los Angeles Dodgers, he hasn’t been taking on the best offenses.
Ohtani is almost always a sharp bet to record multiple total bases, which his staggering offensive stats underscore. Ohtani’s .647 xSLG is comfortably in the 99th percentile. His average exit velocity, xwOBA, xBA and barrel rate are all in that range as well. While walks, especially of the intentional variety, can limit Ohtani’s ability to record multiple total bases, his splits against RHPs are damning — he owns a .322 BA and .699 SLG when facing them. Further, Ashcraft is a top 50 player in walks per nine at just 3.4, and he walks LHBs at a lower rate than RHBs. Ashcraft has been solid against LHBs this year, but that won’t be enough for him to stop Ohtani.
We can buy Ohtani to record multiple bases at odds of +105 (48.8%) via DraftKings Sportsbook. That’s a categorically better price than the -125 (55.7%) at FanDuel, especially since we can use a 50% MLB profit boost to get this up to +157 (38.9%) for the first $25. Expect Ohtani to get plenty of hittable balls from Ashcraft and whichever relievers the Reds tap to replace him late on Tuesday night. This was a sharp MLB player prop pick yesterday, and it’s still a sharp one to get action on today, albeit at a slightly shorter price.
Best Reds-Angels MLB Player Prop: Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 Total Bases +105 at DraftKings
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