We split yesterday’s games but were still net up because of the +120 ticket on Kyle Tucker we cashed in his first at-bat. I have two MLB player props to watch today, and OddsShopper’s model has identified plenty of other options as well. You can also find today’s MLB home run picks here. Here are the players to watch and picks to make on the MLB player prop markets today, including Randy Arozarena, for Twins-Brewers and Rockies-Rays.
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Best MLB Player Props to Watch Today: Picks for Randy Arozarena, Willy Adames
Twins-Brewers Player Prop
Watch: MLB TV Free Game of the Day
When: 2:10 p.m. ET
Where: American Family Field, Milwaukee
Who: Willy Adames at FanDuel
The Milwaukee Brewers will host the Minnesota Twins early on Wednesday afternoon. The Twins are expected to start RHP Kenta Maeda, whose 3.73 xERA and .412 xSLG aren’t terrible but also aren’t much to get excited about. He is above average in the former expected metric but below average in the latter. Maeda has fared worse against same-handed batters than opposite-handed ones this year, allowing RHBs to hit .233 with a .467 SLG due to 18 extra-base hits and eight home runs surrendered.
Willy Adames is the best RHB against RHPs on Milwaukee’s roster. Adames owns a .210 BA with a .395 SLG against same-handed pitchers this year, which aren’t elite numbers, but they are good enough to warrant targeting him in this spot. Adames also ranks second on the Brewers in xSLG at .437, trailing only LHB Christian Yelich. Adames is coming off a home run on Tuesday and owns a .310 BA and .548 SLG over the last 15 days, which includes four extra-base hits.
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Best Twins-Brewers MLB Player Prop: Willy Adames Over 1.5 Total Bases +145 at FanDuel
Rockies-Rays Player Prop
Watch: ESPN+ & Hulu
When: 6:40 p.m. ET
Where: Tropicana Field, Tampa
Who: Randy Arozarena at DraftKings
I touted Randy Arozarena as my top home run pick for today’s slate, so I’m going to double down and recommend that you get action on him to record multiple bases as well. Arozarena takes on the Colorado Rockies and LHP Austin Gomber, who happens to be supported by the MLB’s fourth-worst bullpen by ERA, at Tropicana Field today. Gomber owns an atrocious 5.62 xERA and .493 xSLG, which are both in the seventh percentile. Arozarena should get at least three at-bats against Gomber before getting the chance to feast on the bullpen.
Arozarena is also in a great spot this evening. His .448 xSLG ranks second among active Rays and slots in the 68th percentile. However, he has plenty of power and ranks in the 89th percentile or higher for exit velocity and hard-hit rate. He also has a .437 SLG here at the Trop, which is higher than what we’ve seen him record on the road. Arozarena has only lined up against LHPs for 88 at-bats, but he still has six extra-base hits — all of which were home runs — and a .466 SLG against them. Expect him to capitalize against a fastball-heavy pitcher like Gomber.
Best Rockies-Rays MLB Player Prop: Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 Total Bases +105 at DraftKings
Today’s Best MLB & Sportsbook Promotions
