We split our MLB player props yesterday, cashing a -120 ticket on Freddie Freeman but losing a +115 ticket on Christian Walker. I have two MLB player props to watch today, and OddsShopper’s model has identified plenty of other options as well. You can also find today’s MLB home run picks here. Here are the players to watch and picks to make on the MLB player prop markets today, including Ronald Acuna Jr., for Dodgers-Red Sox and Braves-Giants.
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Best MLB Player Props to Watch Today: Picks for Ronald Acuna, Masataka Yoshida
Dodgers-Red Sox Player Prop
Watch: ESPN+ & Hulu
When: 7:10 p.m. ET
Where: Fenway Park, Boston
Who: Masataka Yoshida at DraftKings
The weather doesn’t look great for tonight’s Dodgers-Red Sox game, but there is still a decent chance that we get this one in. If that happens, the Dodgers are expected to start RHP Lance Lynn, who has been an absolute pumpkin this year. Lynn, a fastball-reliant pitcher, owns a 4.70 xERA and .453 xSLG allowed. He is in the bottom third of the league in both metrics. LHBs have fared the best against him with a .306 BA and .565 SLG.
Although he no longer sees action every day, Masataka Yoshida is in a great spot against Lynn. His .272 xBA and .426 xSLG aren’t elite, but they’re solid enough — he is in the 80th percentile for the former metric and in the 51st for the second. Yoshida also owns solid splits against RHPs with a .299 BA and .468 SLG. He has also performed exceptionally well at home with a .313 BA and .500 SLG in Fenway Park. Let’s back Yoshida to record multiple bases at odds of +110 (47.6%) via DraftKings Sportsbook and hope they get this one in.
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Best Dodgers-Red Sox MLB Player Prop: Masataka Yoshida Over 1.5 Total Bases +110 at DraftKings
Braves-Giants Player Prop
Watch: ESPN+ & Hulu
When: 10:15 p.m. ET
Where: Oracle Park, San Francisco
Who: Ronald Acuna Jr. at DraftKings
I discussed Acuna in today’s home run column, but it’s worth revisiting to emphasize the sharpness of getting action on his total bases tonight. Acuna’s .348 xBA and .628 xSLG are in the 100th and 99th percentile, respectively. He also fares well against RHPs like the one he’ll face tonight, Logan Webb, and owns a .338 BA and .577 SLG when facing them. Those are elite numbers, yet Acuna’s odds of recording multiple bases slot in at only -120 (54.6%) at DraftKings — a number you can boost up to +130 for the first $25.
Webb, San Francisco’s starter, has looked quite vulnerable this season, especially relative to his actual stats. His .385 SLG allowed is better than his .399 xSLG allowed, just like his 3.35 ERA is better than his 3.66 xERA. While he does play in pitcher-friendly Oracle Park, which is where tonight’s game will take place, the forecast calls for 20 mph winds blowing out through center field. Both offenses should get a boost in those kinds of conditions, but I want to concentrate my exposure on Acuna tonight.
Best Braves-Giants MLB Player Prop: Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases -120 at DraftKings
Today’s Best MLB & Sportsbook Promotions
