We split our best televised MLB player props again last night, bringing us to a thoroughly mediocre 2-2 on the week. But with two televised games now to attack, Nationals-Mariners and White Sox-Angels, I’m more optimistic about our odds. I’ve got an angle, OddsShopper’s market-based model has an angle, so it’s time to secure the bag. Here are the players to watch and picks to make on the MLB player prop markets today, including superstar Shohei Ohtani.
Readers looking for all the best MLB bets, picks and predictions throughout the season should check out OddsShopper’s articles and market-based models, including our Parlay Builder!
Best MLB Player Props to Watch Today: Shohei Ohtani, Patrick Corbin
Washington Nationals at Seattle Mariners | 4:10 p.m. ET on ESPN+
OddsShopper’s Model Target: Patrick Corbin at BetMGM
Before we get into my pick, let’s attack the early game by seeing what MLB player prop picks OddsShopper’s model likes today. It wants action on Washington’s starter, LHP Patrick Corbin (4-9), to stay under his strikeout prop. Corbin has taken the mound 16 times this year and is averaging 3.56 strikeouts per start. His 5.75 K/9 is deeply unimpressive. Corbin doesn’t often get pulled before the conclusion of the fifth inning but still struggles to strike out opposing batters.
OddsShopper’s model thinks the market is ever so slightly inefficient with its pricing of this prop. The total, 4.5, seems fair, but the under should be priced at -113 (53.1%), not at the -110 (52.4%) on BetMGM. Both DraftKings and FanDuel have this one priced at -120 (54.6%) or shorter. Although this is a slight edge, betting lines like this one can help you secure a long-term profit. New to BetMGM? You can get first-bet insurance worth up to $1,000 — see more details and disclaimers in the widget above.
Best MLB Player Prop: Patrick Corbin Under 4.5 Strikeouts at BetMGM
Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago White Sox
Isaiah’s Target: Shohei Ohtani at DraftKings
Combing through the oddsboard this morning, I found a deal that seems too good to be true: Shohei Ohtani to record multiple bases sits in the plus money. He’ll take on RHP Lucas Giolito (5-5) today, but that matchup stands out as a good thing — in 23 at-bats against Giolito, Ohtani owns seven hits, five extra-base hits and three home runs. His OPS against him slots in at a whopping 1.130.
It’s difficult to get multiple bases in the majors, but Ohtani has made it look easy this year. He owns an elite 1.072 OPS against RHPs with 35 extra-base hits. He also has recorded multiple bases in four of his last five games. The advanced metrics all suggest this production is sustainable: Ohtani ranks in the 99th percentile for expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) and in the 100th for expected isolated power (ISO). Let’s trust him to keep the momentum rolling tonight.
Best MLB Player Prop: Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 Bases +110 at DraftKings
