Yesterday could’ve gone better. Neither Matt Olson nor Freddie Freeman delivered despite several of their teammates stepping up against bad pitchers. Oh well — I have two MLB player prop picks to watch today, and OddsShopper’s model has identified plenty of other options as well. You can also find today’s MLB home run picks here. Here are the players to watch and picks to make on the MLB player prop markets today, including Shohei Ohtani, for Red Sox-Nationals and Angels-Rangers.
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Best MLB Player Props to Watch Today: Picks for Shohei Ohtani, Rafael Devers
Rays-Giants Player Prop
Watch: ESPN+ & Hulu
When: 7:20 p.m. ET
Where: Oracle Park, San Francisco
Who: Randy Arozarena at DraftKings
It’s another opener game for the San Francisco Giants today, as RHP Ryan Walker is expected to draw the start. Walker opened on Monday as well, and he held the Tampa Bay Rays scoreless with just three baserunners allowed across two innings. He struck out four batters as well. However, the Giants still lost that game by eight runs due to their bad bulk relievers. RHP Ross Stripling is expected to serve in that role today, and his results have been quite poor this season. Stripling owns a 5.10 ERA and a 5.15 xERA to go with a .484 SLG allowed and .490 xSLG allowed. Yikes.
With questionable pitching on the mound, let’s target one of Tampa Bay’s best bats: Randy Arozarena. Although both likely pitchers are RHPs, Arozarena has put together a reasonably respectable resume against same-handed hurlers. He owns 26 extra-base hits and 12 home runs against them with a .409 SLG. Arozarena owns a .445 xSLG and .356 expected weighted on-base average, or xwOBA, which rank in the 69th and 82nd percentile, respectively. Oracle Park isn’t the best stadium for batters, but it’s great for extra-base hits, so let’s trust Arozarena to deliver multiple bases for +120 (45.5%) via FanDuel Sportsbook.
Best Rays-Giants MLB Player Prop: Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 Total Bases +120 at FanDuel
Red Sox-Nationals Player Prop
Watch: ESPN+ & Hulu
When: 7:05 p.m. ET
Where: Nationals Park, Washington, D.C.
Who: Rafael Devers at DraftKings
The Boston Red Sox will visit the Washington Nationals today and take on LHP MacKenzie Gore. Gore has struggled this season and owns a 4.62 ERA and 5.18 xERA to go with a .452 SLG allowed and .464 xSLG allowed, putting him in the 15th percentile or worse for both expected metrics. While Gore isn’t the worst pitcher, he absolutely is a fade, and his recent underperformances make him an even juicier target. Gore just coughed up seven hits, six earned runs and three home runs to the Philadelphia Phillies last Wednesday. He owns a 6.55 ERA over his last two starts.
One of Gore’s more interesting splits leads me to want action on LHB Rafael Devers. Although he was successful against same-handed batters last year, Gore has allowed nine extra-base hits and three home runs to LHBs across 99 at-bats this year, good for a .485 SLG allowed, which is worse than his .442 SLG allowed to RHBs. Devers is pacing the Red Sox in most offensive metrics and has excelled against LHPs with 17 extra-base hits and eight home runs, good for a .526 SLG. His .378 xwOBA and .541 xSLG lead the team and rank in the 94th and 96th percentiles, respectively. Let’s back him to record multiple bases tonight.
Best Red Sox-Nationals MLB Player Prop: Rafael Devers Over 1.5 Total Bases +120 at DraftKings
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Angels-Rangers Player Prop
Watch: MLB TV Free Game of the Day
When: 8:05 p.m. ET
Where: Globe Life Field, Arlington, Tex.
Who: Shohei Ohtani at BetMGM
The Los Angeles Angels will take on the Texas Rangers and RHP Jon Gray tonight, and while I don’t think Gray is nearly as much of a fade as Gore or Stripling, we’re still backing Shohei Ohtani in this spot. Gray owns a respectable 3.65 ERA and 4.23 xERA to go with a .369 SLG allowed and .399 xSLG allowed, both of which are right around the league average. However, Ohtani is that much better than the league average to deserve a steeper price than -105 (51.2%) via BetMGM to record multiple bases tonight. Ohtani’s .429 xwOBA and .641 xSLG both are in the 99th percentile.
Ohtani has absolutely feasted against opposite-handed pitchers this season. As a LHB, Ohtani is hitting .320 with 53 extra-base hits and a .547 SLG against RHPs. He has gone yard 31 times against RHPs as well. Although Ohtani is always a threat to pick up a walk with RISP, the Rangers haven’t been doing that to him this series, and they’re likely not afraid of him due to his cold snap through the first two games, across which he has a single hit. Ohtani should regress to his jaw-droppingly efficient mean soon, and that could mean some offensive fireworks in Arlington tonight.
Best Angels-Rangers MLB Player Prop: Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 Total Bases -105 at BetMGM
