We’ve got a loaded slate of televised baseball action on tap today. I have four MLB player prop picks to watch today, one for each game, and OddsShopper’s model has identified plenty of other options as well. You can also find today’s MLB home run picks here. Here are the players to watch and picks to make on the MLB player prop markets today, including Shohei Ohtani.
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Best MLB Player Props to Watch Today: Picks for Shohei Ohtani, Ryan Mountcastle
Angels-Astros Player Prop
Watch: FOX
When: 7:15 p.m. ET
Where: Minute Maid Park, Houston
Who: Shohei Ohtani at DraftKings
The Los Angeles Angels will take on the Houston Astros on the road today, and we’re targeting Shohei Ohtani to do some damage in the batter’s box. Ohtani has been a dominant offensive threat this year with an elite .432 expected weighted on-base average, or xwOBA, and a .644 xSLG. Ohtani, a LHB, has absolutely owned RHPs like today’s starter, RHP J.P. France. He is hitting .326 against them with a .706 SLG, compiling 52 extra-base hits and 31 home runs along the way.
France has been solid this season, but he is getting a touch overrated in this spot. His 2.75 ERA is impressive, but his 4.41 xERA is not at all intimidating. The same goes for his .372 SLG allowed and .422 xSLG allowed. Although France has generally fared well against LHBs, Ohtani has a pair of base hits against him across six-career at-bats. France has also underperformed at his home park this year with a 3.74 ERA in Houston. Let’s trust Ohtani to compile multiple bases for +105 (48.8%) via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Best MLB Angels-Astros Player Prop: Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 Total Bases +105 via DraftKings
Braves-Mets Player Prop
Watch: FOX
When: 7:15 p.m. ET
Where: Citi Field, Queens, New York
Who: Marcell Ozuna at FanDuel
In a series many expected to have serious postseason implications before the season began, the Atlanta Braves will take on the New York Mets in Queens today. You can tune into the action live on FOX. With the recently returned LHP Jose Quintana on the mound for New York, targeting Atlanta’s RHBs should prove sharp — Quintana owns a .411 SLG allowed to RHBs versus a .000 SLG allowed to LHBs across 23.2 innings. He recorded a .357 SLG allowed to RHBs and a .271 SLG allowed to LHBs last year.
Let’s target Marcell Ozuna in this spot. Ozuna has 16 career at-bats against Quintana, and he has compiled seven hits and a home run through that span, good for a .625 SLG. Ozuna owns a .571 SLG against LHPs this year and a .524 xSLG against all pitchers. His .367 xwOBA ranks fourth on the Braves, which is all the more impressive when you consider he plays alongside some truly elite bats like Ronald Acuna Jr. Play this one for +110 (47.6%) via FanDuel Sportsbook.
Best MLB Braves-Mets Player Prop: Marcell Ozuna Over 1.5 Total Bases +110 for 0.75 Units at FanDuel
Brewers-White Sox Player Prop
Watch: FOX
When: 7:15 p.m. ET
Where: Guaranteed Rate Field, Chicago
Who: Willy Adames at FanDuel
The Chicago White Sox sold at the trade deadline, which has thrust reliever RHP Jesse Scholtens into a starting role. Although Scholtens hasn’t been bad — he owns a reasonably solid 3.06 ERA and 3.89 xERA — he hasn’t been able to stop same-handed batters. Scholtens’ .401 SLG allowed balloons to .528 against RHBs. Across 106 at-bats, RHBs have accounted for 10 extra-base hits and seven home runs.
We’ll target RHB Willy Adames to make the best of Scholtens’ weaknesses. Adames has performed reasonably well against same-handed pitchers this year to the tune of 27 extra-base hits and a .389 SLG across 301 at-bats. Adames ranks third on the Brewers with a .335 xwOBA, but he only trails LHB Christian Yelich and RHB William Contreras. Contreras has struggled against RHPs all year, so Adames is the logical top option in this game. Play the +105 (48.8%) via FanDuel Sportsbook.
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Best MLB Brewers-White Sox Player Prop: Willy Adames Over 1.5 Total Bases +105 for 0.75 Units at FanDuel
Orioles-Mariners Player Prop
Watch: FS1
When: 9:40 p.m. ET
Where: T-Mobile Park, Seattle
Who: Ryan Mountcastle at BetMGM
The Baltimore Orioles will play in one of the MLB’s worst parks for batters tonight. They’ll take on RHP George Kirby and the Seattle Mariners in T-Mobile Park, which ranks last overall in park factors. The stadium ranks last overall for hits, and Kirby has allowed opposing batters to hit only .227 here this season. He has also excelled against RHBs, allowing them to hit only .225 on the year.
Let’s fade Ryan Mountcastle in this spot. Although Mountcastle has been an efficient bat for the Orioles this year, he has hit only .227 against RHPs. He went hitless in the first game of this series and may struggle to get something in play again today. We can buy the under on Mountcastle’s total hits at +165 (37.7%) via BetMGM, which is absolutely worth a wager.
Best MLB Player Prop: Ryan Mountcastle Under 0.5 Hits +165 for 0.75 Units at BetMGM
