We’re up to 3-0 on the week after a pair of plus-money winners on Orlando Arcia and Freddie Freeman last night. Let’s dive right into tonight’s action as we break down the top player prop picks from the game you can watch nationwide tonight: Red Sox-Twins. I’ve got an angle, OddsShopper’s market-based model has an angle, so let’s make some money. Here are the players we’re picking on the MLB player prop markets, including Sonny Gray.
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Best MLB Player Props to Watch Today: Sonny Gray, Adam Duvall
Boston Red Sox at Minnesota Twins | 7:40 p.m. ET on ESPN+
Isaiah’s Target: Adam Duvall
OddsShopper’s Model Target: Sonny Gray
It’s always a great sign when your top bet for the day aligns with the pick that OddsShopper’s model wants some exposure to. These plays are heavily correlated, so let’s start by talking about RHP Sonny Gray (4-1), who, after a strong start to the season, has begun to look very human. Gray owns a 2.37 ERA, which is quite a bit better than his 3.70 xERA — a far cry from the 0.77 ERA he recorded in April.
Gray’s starts in June have not gone well. He has given up 18 hits in only 15.2 innings pitched with only 10 strikeouts. He is also yet to surpass the 5.5-strikeout threshold, which is where the books have set his prop total. It’s not like Gray has been playing tough teams, either — two of his three opponents this month, the Cleveland Guardians and Detroit Tigers, have struggled offensively this year.
Our model thinks a fair price for Gray to stay under 5.5 strikeouts is -189 (65.4%), a number it generates by indexing the betting odds available across the market while favoring sharp books. However, you can find the -150 (60%) at BetMGM, making it one of the best MLB player props today. For more mispriced and high-value props, check out OddsShopper Premium.
Best MLB Player Prop: Sonny Gray Under 5.5 Strikeouts -150 BetMGM
Let’s get into my top MLB pick to watch for this game: Adam Duvall. Duvall started the season well, but then he got hurt, and it took him some time to get back into form. Duvall recorded just one hit in his first four games back. However, he now has five hits, including three extra-base hits and one home run, across his last six games. That home run came last night, and I already have some action on him getting another dinger today.
Duvall should get under Gray’s skin. He has done so in the past — he owns three hits, including two extra-base hits and one home run — across seven at-bats against Gray. Although Gray has allowed only seven extra-base hits and an OPS of .569 to right-handed batters like Duvall this season, he gave up 12 with an OPS of .709 last year. Target Field, where these teams will play tonight, ranks fourth in park factors for doubles to right-handed batters.
Let’s back Duvall to go over 1.5 bases tonight. He can do this by hitting a pair of singles or getting just one extra-base hit. Duvall has logged multiple at-bats in 17 games this year and owns 13 extra-base hits. Although he has certainly been streaky, it looks like he is streaking in the right direction at the moment, so let’s buy this prop at odds of +140 (41.7%) via FanDuel Sportsbook.
Best MLB Player Prop: Adam Duvall Over 1.5 Bases +140 at FanDuel
