The MLB has an exciting, full slate on tap today, including three games on premium streaming services. The props to watch column is at 3-1 for the week, so let’s keep winning bets tonight. We’ll dive into the top MLB player prop picks, one from me, and two from OddsShopper’s market-based model, for the games you can watch across the country today: Pirates-Brewers, Reds-Astros and White Sox-Mariners. Without further ado, here are the players we’re picking on the MLB player prop markets, including William Contreras against Rich Hill.
Readers looking for all the best MLB bets, picks and predictions throughout the season should check out OddsShopper’s articles and market-based models, including our Parlay Builder!
Best MLB Player Props to Watch Today: Time to Fade Rich Hill
Cincinnati Reds vs. Houston Astros | 8:10 p.m. ET on ESPN+
This matchup isn’t the slate’s most exciting option, but at least we can watch it live on ESPN+ — and at least OddsShopper’s best MLB bet today, as of publication, is in this game. Chas McCormick, a reserve outfielder for the Houston Astros, slots in at odds of -225 to record less than one RBI at BetMGM.
McCormick has played in 34 games this year, through which he has made 134 plate appearances. He owns just 17 RBIs, only one of which has come in his last five games. McCormick and the Astros will take on Cincinnati’s LHP Andrew Abbott (2-0) as the 24-year-old looks to establish himself at the major-league level. Abbott owns an ERA of 0.00 through two starts.
A market-based approach reveals the value behind this play. OddsShopper’s model believes a fair price for this prop, which it generates by comparing odds across the market, is -255 (71.8%). However, BetMGM is selling it for only -225 (69.2%), which is enough edge to warrant wagering 3% of your bankroll.
Best MLB Player Prop: Chas McCormick Under 0.5 RBIs -225 at BetMGM
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers | 8:10 p.m. ET on Apple TV+
Now it’s my time to shine. The model is smart and everything, but it doesn’t fully understand just how old LHP Rich Hill (6-5) is. The 43-year-old control pitcher has allowed 11 home runs this year, all of which have gone to right-handed batters. Righties own a solid OPS of .796 against him with 63 hits, 19 doubles and one triple over 244 at-bats this year.
I already have exposure to one right-handed batter for the Milwaukee Brewers, William Contreras, to hit a home run. But there are more ways than just that to get action on Contreras this evening. He slots in at +120 (45.5%) to record 2+ bases at FanDuel Sportsbook. He has two career at-bats against Hill, one of which went for a triple.
The splits confirm the value here. Contreras is averaging 0.39 bases per plate appearance against left-handed pitchers. Four plate appearances against Hill or another left-handed pitcher would yield 1.56 bases. While this play probably wins less than half the time, we’re getting enough value at +120 to justify betting it at FanDuel.
Best MLB Player Prop: William Contreras Over 2+ Bases +120 at FanDuel
Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners | 10:10 p.m. ET on Apple TV+
Let’s wrap this column up with a play from the late-slate game. The Chicago White Sox remain on the west coast after their series against the Los Angeles Dodgers, but they’ll head north to Seattle for this one. The White Sox will start up-and-down RHP Michael Kopech (3-5), who, after starting the year miserably, has improved his ERA to 4.03.
OddsShopper’s model wants exposure to one of Seattle’s left-handed hitters, outfielder Jarred Kelenic. Kelenic has seen action in 63 games this year and owns 60 hits. Of those 60 hits, 41 have come against right-handed pitchers like Kopech. Kelenic has never lined up against Kopech before in the majors.
Again, the model uses market-based reasoning. An equivalent play, Kelenic to record at least one base, would cost you -128 (56.1%) at Pinnacle, and a fair market price for this bet would be -111 (52.6%). However, we can buy Kelenic to get a hit at odds of only -105 (51.2%) at DraftKings Sportsbook. New to DraftKings? You can get $200 in bonus bets after signing up here and wagering at least $5!
Best MLB Player Prop: Jarred Kelenic Over 0.5 Hits -105 at DraftKings
