As the summer approaches, bettors eager to get as much action down as possible are running out of options. The NBA and NHL Finals are here for another few games, but after those conclude, we’re mostly down to baseball. Fortunately, America’s pastime offers plenty of betting action. Let’s dive into the top MLB player prop picks in OddsShopper’s market-based model for the games you can watch on national television today, including one for Austin Riley.
Readers looking for all the best MLB bets, picks and predictions throughout the season should check out OddsShopper’s articles and market-based models, including our Parlay Builder!
Best MLB Player Props to Watch Today: Austin Riley
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets | 7:20 p.m. ET on TBS
If you’re looking to sweat out a home run bet today, look no further than this evening’s battle between the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets. I’ve said more about my thoughts on the game here, but the betting markets point to value on a different option.
Austin Riley should hit a home run 19.4% of the time today, or in two out of every five games. But the odds for him to hit a home run vary wildly across the market. Riley sits at only +330, or 23.4%, to do so at FanDuel Sportsbook. However, we can buy him at +450, or 18.2%, via Caesars Sportsbook.
Riley ranks 38th in the MLB in total home runs this season (10). However, he could be hitting more effectively — his .335 weighted on-base average slots in slightly below his .343 expected weighted on-base average, which suggests room for positive regression exists. Let’s watch for some tonight on TBS.
Best MLB Player Prop: Austin Riley Home Run +450 at Caesars
Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago Cubs | 9:38 p.m. ET on ESPN+
If you’re a night owl, this evening’s battle between the Los Angeles Angels and Chicago Cubs could be a fun sweat. The Angels will start LHP Tyler Anderson (2-1), and he makes for a sharp target on the MLB player prop markets today.
Anderson owns a sketchy 5.47 ERA, but relative to his 4.99 xERA, it’s possible he has started the year unluckily. He’ll get a chance to right the ship against a Chicago Cubs lineup that’s missing Cody Bellinger and owns a team OPS of .545 in June.
Tyler Anderson should strike out at least five batters 49.8% of the time, per OddsShopper’s market-based model. However, we can buy him to record at least five strikeouts at the generous price of +110 (47.6%) via DraftKings Sportsbook. If you haven’t signed up for DraftKings yet, you can get $200 in bonus bets instantly after placing a $5 wager!
